# Coronavirus - unnecessary panic



## mikeyB

Just how dangerous is this new coronavirus? The number of infections which have caused death currently runs at less than 1 in 400 of cases. That compares to both measles and flu. In reality it is less dangerous than either. Measles can leave behind permanent neurological damage.

The deaths from the new coronavirus are not entirely due to the virus. As happens with flu deaths, it depends on concomitant health conditions - the old and frail, smokers, those with significantly compromised immune systems and the very young. Remember that most simple colds are caused by coronaviruses- there are around 100 types of coronavirus, which tend to circulate in geographic areas. Live in the same place for years and you build up immunity. And that’s why if you move to a new area, you tend to catch every cold going until your immunity builds against the local bugs.

Most importantly just because you have diabetes don’t think that you have a compromised immune system against viruses. You don’t. It’s bacterial infections that like diabetes. Viruses couldn’t care less. When you get a cold, it affects your diabetic control, but that’s because of cortisol and other stuff that your body is using to fight the infection. Get a bacterial infection, and the bacteria love all that sugar, so they are dangerous for diabetics.

Will there be a pandemic of the new coronavirus? Quite possibly. Will it decimate the population? Obviously no. The new virus will join the happy band of of all those coronaviruses that cause our colds. There may be bad colds, till we build up our immunity, but so what? 

Don’t fear coronavirus, fear the escape of Ebola fever from Africa. Catch that, don’t start any long books.


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## Pine Marten

Thanks for that, @mikeyB, some common sense! The front page headline screaming in last night's Standard was *KILLER VIRUS: TWO CASES IN BRITAIN *which I thought was rather scare mongering... 

Perhaps - if it was indeed transmitted from the poor wretched animals in their wildlife markets - it might make the Chinese think twice about this disgusting trade in endangered and other creatures, but I wouldn't bank on it.

So the official guidelines are to wash your hands thoroughly and not cough or sneeze over people. As Tony Hancock sang in the immortal _Blood Donor,_ 'coughs and sneezes spread diseases, trap the germs in your handkerchief...'


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## MikeTurin

I think the precaution they are taking could be justified to block the visur before it will cause more damages. It's a bit like the Y2K bug, that didn't caused a lot of disruptions because there was a lot of awareness on it so the Y2K effect was at level of nuisances. Unfortunately for the Y2K38 bug the awareness isn't started.


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## trophywench

Think you have the lyric slightly wrong there, it was simply 'trap them in your handkerchief' as I recall ! (to the well known German national anthem tune the first line of which goes Deutschland, Deutschland uber alles ….. and was hijacked as an English hymn tune that starts 'Praise the Lord, ye saints adore him')


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## Eddy Edson

FWIW, study in Lancet reporting 11% mortality in s/term follow-up of 99 cases in Wuhan: https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)30211-7/fulltext

_The 2019-nCoV infection was of clustering onset, is more likely to affect older males with comorbidities, and can result in severe and even fatal respiratory diseases such as acute respiratory distress syndrome. In general, characteristics of patients who died were in line with the MuLBSTA score, an early warning model for predicting mortality in viral pneumonia. Further investigation is needed to explore the applicability of the MuLBSTA score in predicting the risk of mortality in 2019-nCoV infection._


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## AndBreathe

As somene currently in SE Asia (not China), we are just being careful, as we would ever be.   

Yesterday we were talked no about the updated numbers here (19, all bar one Chines nationals, or those having travelled to China doe Chinese New Year), and speculated we could end up in an RAF camp from r a couple of Weiss on our return to UK, but that is still a number of weeks away.


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## Docb

Well said mikeyB, and I am sure you have a sensible perspective on the issue.  I am sure that the current hiatus is more to do with demonisation of China as part of international geopolitics than it has to do with public health.


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## Andy HB

Docb said:


> Well said mikeyB, and I am sure you have a sensible perspective on the issue.  I am sure that the current hiatus is more to do with demonisation of China as part of international geopolitics than it has to do with public health.



I've only heard people say good things about how China has dealt with the current situation. They've been far more open and pro-active than with the SARS outbreak.


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## grovesy

Well there have been reports of Medics in the area being reprimanded by Central government for trying to raise concerns. One of these reports was on the Chinese News Station CGTN.


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## Pine Marten

trophywench said:


> Think you have the lyric slightly wrong there, it was simply 'trap them in your handkerchief' as I recall ! (to the well known German national anthem tune the first line of which goes Deutschland, Deutschland uber alles ….. and was hijacked as an English hymn tune that starts 'Praise the Lord, ye saints adore him')


Aha! See from around 9.37 of the following (best one I could find - and he almost does John Cleese's silly walk  ) :


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## mikeyB

Eddy Edson said:


> FWIW, study in Lancet reporting 11% mortality in s/term follow-up of 99 cases in Wuhan: https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)30211-7/fulltext
> 
> _The 2019-nCoV infection was of clustering onset, is more likely to affect older males with comorbidities, and can result in severe and even fatal respiratory diseases such as acute respiratory distress syndrome. In general, characteristics of patients who died were in line with the MuLBSTA score, an early warning model for predicting mortality in viral pneumonia. Further investigation is needed to explore the applicability of the MuLBSTA score in predicting the risk of mortality in 2019-nCoV infection._


Indeed, rather makes my point. If only 11% of those with comorbidities died, then for sure it's all a fuss about nothing worse than bog standard flu. Fairly soon, the media will notice that hardly anyone is dying with this bug. It's no SARS, is it?


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## PhoebeC

So how do we all feel about this now? 

Apparently (according to the bbc) 7% of people who have caught it, who have diabetes have died, which seems high. See below: 

Who is worst affected by the virus?
The old and the sick. The current fatality rate is less than 0.5% for people under the age of 50. But it rises to 8% for people in their 70s and 15% for people over 80. Meanwhile, nearly 11% of people with diseases of the heart died when infected. As did 7% of people with diabetes and 6% of people with long-term lung problems. The average for healthy people is 0.9%.









						Coronavirus: World must prepare for pandemic, says WHO
					

But the UN health body says the coronavirus outbreak does not yet meet the criteria for a pandemic.



					www.bbc.co.uk


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## SB2015

I think Mike’s piece still makes sense.

With any statistics it is difficult to interpret as we don’t know the background information to those deaths.
Neither do we have comparative data about the usual winter infections.
How many have been infected with flu in the same period?
What percentage of those have dies

I plan just to take sensible precautions in order to avoid catching the usual array of bugs.


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## Ljc

SB2015 said:


> I think Mike’s piece still makes sense.
> 
> With any statistics it is difficult to interpret as we don’t know the background information to those deaths.
> Neither do we have comparative data about the usual winter infections.
> How many have been infected with flu in the same period?
> What percentage of those have dies
> 
> I plan just to take sensible precautions in order to avoid catching the usual array of bugs.



Ditto . If when a vaccine becomes available I will have it


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## Bruce Stephens

SB2015 said:


> How many have been infected with flu in the same period?
> What percentage of those have dies



Presumably large numbers are infected with the flu (many of them without symptoms). Similarly, presumably the figure for the infected number of Italians (200, reportedly) is much too low.

I think it would be helpful for people not to panic, on the other hand trying seriously to slow the spread of this apparently new (to humans) virus makes sense. If we had any hope of containing flu then serious efforts to do so would surely be worthwhile: it kills lots of people.

It would help if authorities were a bit more effective, though: keeping (presumably) uninfected people on a cruise ship together with some infected people seems like a really effective way of infecting everyone on it. (Would have been much better to get them off the ship a family at a time into quarantine onshore, I'd have thought. Or something like that. But maybe that would have been impractical.)

(As an example of something quite ineffective, one London milonga (place where people dance tango socially) has announced "antibacterial hand gel is available for your use on every table". No harm in that, and it might be of benefit for some things. On the whole, I assume if someone's got a respiratory infection then if you're dancing tango you're very likely to be exposed to it.)


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## everydayupsanddowns

PhoebeC said:


> Apparently (according to the bbc) 7% of people who have caught it, who have diabetes have died, which seems high. See below:
> 
> Who is worst affected by the virus?
> The old and the sick. The current fatality rate is less than 0.5% for people under the age of 50. But it rises to 8% for people in their 70s and 15% for people over 80. Meanwhile, nearly 11% of people with diseases of the heart died when infected. As did 7% of people with diabetes and 6% of people with long-term lung problems. The average for healthy people is 0.9%.



It still seems to be getting quite a lot of panicky media coverage when compared to the outcomes of Flu. But then again various organisations seem to be ‘gearing up’ in case it really starts to spread more widely across the globe. 

I’m also not quite sure how those stats are dealing with overlaps... for people over 70 who also happen to have diabetes for example.


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## trophywench

LOL - I'll let you know in the second half of April, Mike!.

Ordinary flu though - only ever had it once in my life so it clearly didn't kill me.  Never ever felt so wretched, wanted to cry but didn't have the strength.  Had I been an ill person besides the flu it wouldn't have surprised me if I'd popped me clogs.  Might have been a relief.  I know that sounds really awful but its true!


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## mikeyB

What is good about this disease is that it only seems to kill the elderly. It may or may not kill those with diabetes, or only those with a full house of diabetic complications. There’s no way of telling. What is clear is that the virus has not mutated.

The Spanish flu epidemic in 1918 killed 20% of those infected. It then mutated and killed 50%. In total, at least 20 million worldwide. Then it died out. Why? Because it was too good at killing its host. Very inefficient for a virus trying to reproduce itself. So this coronavirus may well become a pandemic, but the vast majority will become immune after a flu-like illness.

Given the precautions in place across the world, this virus should die out before it reaches England, the same as happened with its nasty big brother SARS.

Anyway, worry not - at least those of you who have had your flu jabs, because this new virus has a long way to go yet ((by a factor of 100) to catch up with the lethality of flu to the old,


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## grovesy

Those that have died in the Italian cluster seem to have been elderly and already sick with other conditions.


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## Docb

Rory Stewart was on the radio this morning talking common sense about the coronavirus. A lone voice (along with MikeyB's) amongst the hype and sensationalism.


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## grovesy

Docb said:


> Rory Stewart was on the radio this morning talking common sense about the coronavirus. A lone voice (along with MikeyB's) amongst the hype and sensationalism.


I think the media have been a bit sensationalist from the start of this. I have just read someone on Twitter from the UK saying to someone from the US who was complaining  of lack of goverment info, saying we had text from surgeries in the UK last week. Well I did not get one !


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## Ljc

grovesy said:


> I think the media have been a bit sensationalist from the start of this. I have just read someone on Twitter from the UK saying to someone from the US who was complaining  of lack of goverment info, saying we had text from surgeries in the UK last week. Well I did not get one !


I agree with you on the sensationalism.  

Neither did we but on the patient online log in page , they are asking people not to visit their surgery under certain circumstances with advise on what to do.


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## Eddy Edson

Ljc said:


> I agree with you on the sensationalism.
> 
> Neither did we but on the patient online log in page , they are asking people not to visit their surgery under certain circumstances with advise on what to do.



I got asked today at  surgery if I'd been overseas in last 14 days etc etc.

Re how serious it is - don't think anybody knows yet; still too early, not enough data, not good enough data. People pontificating on one side or the other are are just noise, at this stage.


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## Docb

Eddy Edson said:


> I got asked today at  surgery if I'd been overseas in last 14 days etc etc.
> 
> Re how serious it is - don't think anybody knows yet; still too early, not enough data, not good enough data. People pontificating on one side or the other are are just noise, at this stage.



Which to some extent is what Rory Stewart was saying.  The information available says that this virus is most likely has much in common with seasonal flue.  If there is an epidemic then most people who get infected will get mild to moderate symptoms and will feel ill for a while before recovering. What he would like assurances about is that contingency plans were in place to cope with those with more severe symptoms and to cope if further information indicates that this virus is a bigger problem than it seems to be at the moment.


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## grovesy

When the deaths in Italy were reported at the weekend,  they did say at first as one person was already seriously ill they were not sure that person had died from the virus.


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## Eddy Edson

Docb said:


> Which to some extent is what Rory Stewart was saying.  The information available says that this virus is most likely has much in common with seasonal flue.  If there is an epidemic then most people who get infected will get mild to moderate symptoms and will feel ill for a while before recovering. What he would like assurances about is that contingency plans were in place to cope with those with more severe symptoms and to cope if further information indicates that this virus is a bigger problem than it seems to be at the moment.



 The early WHO estimates say 2% - 3% mortality; this compares to about 0.1% for flu. If that holds up and this thing spreads like flu, then it seems like it's potentially much worse. But I'm pretty sure that mortality and transmission rates at this stage are subject to huge uncertainties.

Complacency and panic both seem equally simple-minded at this stage.


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## Northerner

From the Guardian:

*I work at a walk-in health centre. The coronavirus super-worriers are a problem*

Everyone in my walk-in centre is getting a bit twitchy. Coronavirus is spreading, and we are waiting for our first case to arrive after the initial ones became known outside of China, in Singapore and Macau. After January 27, some of the receptionists – understandably nervous about getting infected themselves – begin to flag anyone travelling from a country where there has been a case.

A couple come in who had already spoken to 111 because they were afraid after having travelled to such a country. They were told by 111 not to worry, but they still came to the urgent care centre wearing masks.

I don’t understand why we haven’t had a widespread public health information campaign about coronavirus yet, because misinformation is spreading undue alarm and hysteria. This is not Ebola or Mers; nothing on that scale of scariness. More than 4,500 people in England have been tested for the virus and nine have been positive. No one has died or even been admitted to intensive care, and those who have died elsewhere have often had multiple existing conditions.









						I work at a walk-in health centre. The coronavirus super-worriers are a problem | Anonymous
					

A public information campaign is urgently needed to tell people that all bar the very ill should access help from home, says an anonymous lead clinician




					www.theguardian.com


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## Robin

I suspect a lot of the panic is among the generation brought up with the flu jab programme, who have never experienced a flu epidemic. I remember regular winter flu epidemics, some worse than others. If you were unlucky, you caught flu, had a miserable week followed by three weeks of feeling washed out, then you didn’t get it again for several years. If you were really unlucky and elderly, there weren’t any hospital beds available because half the ward staff were off with it, or it finished you off. Because of the boom in travel, and worldwide communications, it’s going to spread round the world faster, and we'll know about it, but it isn’t anything different to what happened annually on a local level when I was growing up.


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## mikeyB

Of course, you could say that this media generated panic is a good practice run for when something truly deadly escapes, such as Ebola, currently confined to Africa. There is, of course, a vaccine for Ebola now available, but it is unfortunately refused by some because of local insurgents blaming the “west” and Big Pharma for the outbreak.

There are folk on this forum who might remember the polio outbreak in the Blackburn area in the 60’s. I remember a ban on public gatherings - the Rovers weren’t allowed to play any home games, and there was mass administration of polio vaccine. That was the old oral vaccine on sugar lumps, which is no longer used for a very good reason. Polio is an enterovirus, spread by faecal oral contamination. That vaccine was a weakened polio virus, which did give immunity. But in less developed countries with no public sewage systems, that weakened virus escaped in poo, and caused outbreaks of the disease, particularly in those changing nappies.

The worst effect of that outbreak was the Rovers being relegated  from the old First Division.

And those of us with anti-panic views on coronavirus would do well to remember Aesop’s story of The Boy Who Cried Wolf.


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## atoll

mikeyB said:


> The Spanish flu epidemic in 1918 killed 20% of those infected. It then mutated and killed 50%. In total, at least 20 million worldwide. Then it died out. Why? Because it was too good at killing its host. Very inefficient for a virus trying to reproduce itself. So this coronavirus may well become a pandemic, but the vast majority will become immune after a flu-like illness.
> 
> Given the precautions in place across the world, this virus should die out before it reaches England, the same as happened with its nasty big brother SARS.


actually the CFR was 2-3% for the 1918 flu which is about the same as the covid 19 strain,and estimates were 30 milliion dead out of a world population of 1.8 billion
this could kill as many as 80 million before mutating.
source https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spanish_flu


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## mikeyB

No, it couldn’t kill as many as 80m. The individual risk of death with the mutated Spanish flu was 50%. The individual risk with this new coronavirus is tiny in healthy folk. And I repeat (yet again) that it it less of a threat than seasonal flu. The big difference between the viruses is that Spanish flu killed the previously fit and healthy.


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## Jodee

It really depends which news media you are reading.

Its thought the elderly and those already with chronic illness and compromised immune system are more at risk.  

I am certainly not taking any risks, but then I am not just dealing with diabetes.

.gov uk page:  https://www.gov.uk/government/publi...cov-infection-prevention-and-control-guidance

So glad precautions are being taken.  









						Coronavirus: Hundreds of flu patients to be tested by UK hospitals and GPs
					

It comes as several schools close and some office workers are sent home due to virus fears.



					www.bbc.co.uk


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## trophywench

Nick Robinson's account made me wonder how much his carpark fee was and what they would do when someone doesn't own a car and needs testing.


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## atoll

mikey b with all due respect I think you should read the link I posted,the 1918 flu had a CFR of 2-3%,according to the WHO.
 meanwhile with this virus you would need to stay isolated for aprox 18 months till they find a vaccine,or 3 years till it burns itself out due to having nobody left to infect.
in 3 months time this is going to be raging world wide Ro is currently 6.6 with mortality 2-5%----everybody will get it ,many will die.
if you are young fit and healthy better to get it now to build some immunity for when it mutates and causes a second round of infection that could be even more deadly.


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## Robin

atoll said:


> if you are young fit and healthy better to get it now to build some immunity for when it mutates and causes a second round of infection that could be even more deadly


I’m not really understanding where you get your opinion that it will mutate to a more deadly strain. The Wikipedia article in your link above states that flu strains usually mutate to a less virulent strain, the reason being because those with severe flu tend to stay at home out of everyone’s way, and those with the milder version mix in the community and pass it on. What the Wiki article goes on to say, is that in the 1918 epidemic, because of the war, people who ha dot mildly tended to stay put, whereas those with the severe version were packed off in trains and were shunted into new areas, where they spread it. In the current outbreak, severe cases are shunted off to hospital, where they are being treated in isolation.
The Wiki article also states that a large proportion of deaths were caused by malnutrition or bacteriological pneumonia, for which we now (for the present at least) have antibiotics.


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## atoll

mikey b with all due respect I think you should read the link I posted,the 1918 flu had a CFR of 2-3%,according to the WHO.
meanwhile with this virus you would need to stay isolated for aprox 18 months till they find a vaccine,or 3 years till it burns itself out due to having nobody left to infect.
in 3 months time this is going to be raging world wide Ro is currently 6.6 with mortality 2-5%----everybody will get it ,many will die.
if you are young fit and healthy better to get it now to build some immunity for when it mutates and causes a second round of infection that could be even more deadly.


Robin said:


> I’m not really understanding where you get your opinion that it will mutate to a more deadly strain. The Wikipedia article in your link above states that flu strains usually mutate to a less virulent strain, the reason being because those with severe flu tend to stay at home out of everyone’s way, and those with the milder version mix in the community and pass it on. What the Wiki article goes on to say, is that in the 1918 epidemic, because of the war, people who ha dot mildly tended to stay put, whereas those with the severe version were packed off in trains and were shunted into new areas, where they spread it. In the current outbreak, severe cases are shunted off to hospital, where they are being treated in isolation.
> The Wiki article also states that a large proportion of deaths were caused by malnutrition or bacteriological pneumonia, for which we now (for the present at least) have antibiotics.


not wanting to create panic,or discuss the 1918 flu .
best to do your own research and preparation.
i think that the 1000 people in quarentine in tenerife will give us a better idea of what to expect.
i will revisit the topic on the 11 nov.
good news is the able couple are apparently recovering .
david able is a type1 diabetic


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## Eddy Edson

Feb 24 report on COVID-19 in China: https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2762130

- Really not enough good data to come up with a good CFR measure. Crude figures: 0.4% outside Hubei, 2.9% in Hubei where it started. But every reason to think cases in Hubei and elsewhere underreported => lower actual CFR.

_As of the end of February 18, 2020, China has reported 72 528 confirmed cases (98.9% of the global total) and 1870 deaths (99.8% of the global total). This translates to a current crude CFR of 2.6%. However, the total number of COVID-19 cases is likely higher due to inherent difficulties in identifying and counting mild and asymptomatic cases. Furthermore, the still-insufficient testing capacity for COVID-19 in China means that many suspected and clinically diagnosed cases are not yet counted in the denominator.2 This uncertainty in the CFR may be reflected by the important difference between the CFR in Hubei (2.9%) compared with outside Hubei (0.4%).1,2 Nevertheless, all CFRs still need to be interpreted with caution and more research is required. _

- It's spread much faster than initial SARS and MERS outbreaks. Eg, SARS had 8,096 confirmed cases before it was contained, versus 75,528 so far for COVID-19 in China. This means that COVID-19 is already more deadly in China than SARS, despite lower CFR:  774 deaths from SARS vs 1,870 COVID-19 deaths in China so far.

- 81% of cases classified as "mild", 14% "severe", 5% "critical". All deaths have been amongst "critical" patients, with CFR of 49%. 

- CFR's elevated amongst older people with comorbidities - no surprise.


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## atoll




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## Eddy Edson

WHO daily updates: https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019/situation-reports/

Latest outside China: confirmed cases 2,227, deaths 41. So crude CFR <2%. Skewed by higher CFR's in Iran and Italy.

A week ago, the WHO reported < 300 confirmed cases outside China with a couple of deaths. No doubt some reporting catch-up, but growth is evident.

Above excludes the cruise ship.


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## trophywench

Well the quickest way to spread any airborne disease or virus is via air conditioning (remember Legionnaire's disease?) - our eldest daughter is asthmatic and once worked at Barclays Bank call centre where she proved herself to be a super sales lady, just cos she is mega intelligent and able to talk and engage anyone she happens to talk to - could sell ice to the eskimos as it were.  However - the building made her so constantly ill, it was absolutely not worth it.

Hence when they effectively trapped all those folk on the cruise ship, you'd have thought more of em would be dropping like flies, than actually did.


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## Jodee

Latest .gov UK link from this page:  https://www.gov.uk/government/topical-events/coronavirus-covid-19-uk-government-response

*Coronavirus (COVID-19): UK government response*

Coronavirus (COVID-19) is a new strain of coronavirus first identified in Wuhan City, China in December 2019.

Public Health England is working to contact anyone who has been in close contact with people who have coronavirus.

The UK government is monitoring the situation in China and around the world.

Read the latest information about the situation in the UK, along with guidance for what to do if you think you’re at risk.

Number of UK cases and latest test figures.

Read Public Health England’s blog posts about its response to coronavirus and how it uses contact tracing to prevent the spread of infection.


*Situation in the UK  *https://www.gov.uk/guidance/wuhan-novel-coronavirus-information-for-the-public#situation-in-the-uk 
*Number of cases*

As of 26 February, a total of 7,132 people have been tested in the UK, of which 7,119 were confirmed negative and 13 positive.

The Department of Health and Social Care will be publishing updated data on this page every day at 2pm until further notice. If more cases are confirmed in the UK, it will be announced as soon as possible by the Chief Medical Officer of the affected country.


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## Eddy Edson

trophywench said:


> Well the quickest way to spread any airborne disease or virus is via air conditioning (remember Legionnaire's disease?) - our eldest daughter is asthmatic and once worked at Barclays Bank call centre where she proved herself to be a super sales lady, just cos she is mega intelligent and able to talk and engage anyone she happens to talk to - could sell ice to the eskimos as it were.  However - the building made her so constantly ill, it was absolutely not worth it.
> 
> Hence when they effectively trapped all those folk on the cruise ship, you'd have thought more of em would be dropping like flies, than actually did.



CFR of 0.4% on the ship, same as China ex-Hubei, fwiw.


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## trophywench

Does that include the ones who'd got it by the time they reached their home countries?


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## Eddy Edson

trophywench said:


> Does that include the ones who'd got it by the time they reached their home countries?



Sorry, don't know


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## atoll

correct me if I am wrong but a 2%CFR would be 1 death per 50 people infected as opposed to seasonal flu that has a CFR of 0.1% or 1 death per 1000 people infected.

according to the Dr cambell video, new tests are also suggesting infection rates as high as Ro 4.7-6.6
which might explain the skewed results as unlike the Chinese very few Europeans  or iranians go about with face masks as  common practise against airborne particles.

it is also suggested that masks don't work,but i'm sure they work way better than no mask at all in lowering CFR and Ro transmission rates!



Eddy Edson said:


> WHO daily updates: https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019/situation-reports/
> 
> Latest outside China: confirmed cases 2,227, deaths 41. So crude CFR <2%. Skewed by higher CFR's in Iran and Italy.
> 
> A week ago, the WHO reported < 300 confirmed cases outside China with a couple of deaths. No doubt some reporting catch-up, but growth is evident.
> 
> Above excludes the cruise ship.


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## Eddy Edson

atoll said:


> correct me if I am wrong but a 2%CFR would be 1 death per 50 people infected as opposed to seasonal flu that has a CFR of 0.1% or 1 death per 1000 people infected.
> 
> according to the Dr cambell video, new tests are also suggesting infection rates as high as Ro 4.7-6.6
> which might explain the skewed results as unlike the Chinese very few Europeans  or iranians go about with face masks as  common practise against airborne particles.
> 
> it is also suggested that masks don't work,but i'm sure they work way better than no mask at all in lowering CFR and Ro transmission rates!



Yes, 2% CFR would mean ~20X seasonal flu, as I understand things.

But my completely non-expert Internet-quality guess is that the actual CFR is much lower: large-scale underreporting of mild/asymptomatic cases in Hubei and Iran etc etc.  Maybe the 0.4% ex-Hubei etc etc mark is better, which would make it 4X seasonal flu; I'll take that as my guess.

Further, it looks like the same kind of mortality risk profile as flu: older people, comorbidities etc. 

Finally, it looks like it spreads really quickly, so I'm going to guess it's a lot more infectious than flu.

Bottom-line Internet-quality guess: Like flu, but worse, particularly for the older/infirm. Every reason for concerted action by health authorities/govts/individuals. World not coming to an end.

EDIT: 

If you strip out Italy and Iran from the latest WHO ex-China figures, you get 1,810 confirmed cases and 15 deaths => CFR of 0.8%.  But most of the remainder is from South Korea and I vaguely remember that most of this was amongst some separatist religious sect. 

If you also strip out South Korea you get 549 confirmed cases and 3 deaths => CFR of 0.5%.

FWIW, but I'd be willing to bet however much of your money you'd like to lend me that the CFR for somewhere like the UK is potentially around 0.5%.


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## atoll

lets hope so,i don't fancy being welded into my living space to keep isolated,nor triaged as a  diabetic  among all the other hopeless immunosuppressed cases because of lack of bed space....

however  making a will,or checking it is current will probably go a long way to mitigating  the effects of the virus for your heirs should it all go terribly wrong.


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## AndBreathe

Call me a deluded idiot if you like, but for me, I'm getting on with my life.  I'm keeping myself nice and healthy (A1c a few days ago at 4.8% - they measure in old money here), washing my hands plenty, and not getting too close to anyone coughing.

The likelihood of me catching Covid-19 is low.  The chances of me meeting my demise because of it is low, but then the chances of me meeting a truck when I cross the nearby 4-lane-each-way road is also low.  I respect that road, but I do cross it, when necessary.

This last week, our family has experienced one tragic sudden death, and another diagnosis of a cruel type of leukaemia.  Nobody needs those, but they do serve me yet another reminder that life is for living.  For me, it isn't for hiding from things, but for managing in a sensible way that doesn't overly restrict my enjoyment of life.  One day it'll be all too late for that enjoyment.

Of course, everyone will decide for themselves how they manage themselves and their kin, but I'm not for hiding away, getting chest infections from air conditioning.


----------



## Sally71

I agree, what's the point of panicking about it?  You'll either get it or you won't, and short of taking extra care with hygiene there isn't much you can do about it.  You can't barricade yourself into your home and never go out for the next few months just in case.  Everyone is going to die of something, you just have to hope that you are one of the lucky ones who gets to live a long life.  Which most of us will be.  Everyone made a big fuss about swine flu in 2009 but I don't know a single person who got that.


----------



## eggyg

My grandson’s school was thinking of closing as they had have pupils skiing in northern Italy and a couple are unwell,  but common sense prevailed and they have just been told if anyone is unwell to self isolate. Unfortunately, some ill informed parents are kicking off and refusing to let their precious little darlings go to school. My daughter, fortunately, like me is more pragmatic and understands the risk is minimal and they probably have a common cold. On the news last night is was once more reiterated that those with longterm health conditions ie diabetes, low immunity ( I tick both boxes as haven’t got a spleen) and those with a heart condition ( Mr Eggy has a VERY complex heart condition) are  most at risk. We just turned to each other, laughed, and said “ well we’re buggered then”! Our kids have joked we should self isolate, my reply was “ see you in a fortnight. Does this mean no babysitting or school runs?” Errr....no, was the reply! Damn!


----------



## Stitch147

I'm off to the Canary Islands next week, Lanzarote to be precise. Am I worried about coronavirus, nope. I'm worried that the 3 books I've packed won't be enough for 10 days.


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## Eddy Edson

Here in Ozstralia the govt has just decided that a global pandemic is quite likely, taking advice from the Chief Medical Officer, and has pulled the trigger on the first phase of its pandemic response plan: extending China travel bans; working on medical supply chains, stockpiles, personnel; starting to examine economic stimulus moves.

_The government’s deputy chief medical officer, Prof Paul Kelly, said researchers continued to learn more about the disease watching its rapid spread across countries such as Iran, Italy and South Korea.

“Now we know more about this virus, how it spreads, how infectious it is, how likely it is to cause severe illness and in which type of people it may cause severe illness. I would stress that for 80% of people it’s a mild illness,” Kelly said.

“And so we’re preparing for all eventualities in terms of when it may or may not come to Australia, and how many people might get infected.”_

But apparently we're not required to lock ourselves in the basement quite yet. Anyway, I guess politically they could end up looking proactive and competent, without much downside if the thing does get contained except for the possible crying-wolf effects.

Meanwhile, Trump has gone even further by putting Mike Pence in charge of the US response, based no doubt on Pence's close personal relationship with God rather than eg his record dealing with AIDS in Indiana.


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## Sally71

I got a text from my daughter's school yesterday, stating that apparently a rumour is going round that there was a school trip to Italy over half term and that some students have come back with coronavirus, and that they would like to make it clear that there was no such trip and nobody has got the virus!  My daughter said that she's heard that if there are any cases confirmed locally, then all the schools will close.  This may be true, and as schools tend to be breeding grounds for all sorts of illnesses then that might be a sensible idea in that case. Or maybe they will just tell ill people to self isolate. (Although the amount of parents who don't follow the 48 hour isolation rule for sickness bugs and just send their kids back to school the next day anyway is shocking!) But unless we do get any actual confirmed cases locally then I'm not going to waste any time or energy worrying about it, getting yourself in a state over how many people have died so far will make no difference whatsoever to your chances of contracting it or not


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## Docb

Don't you love this term "self isolate".  It means do your best not to spread the thing around, so go home, make yourself comfortable, make sure you don't dehydrate, take paracetamol for aches and pains and only bother the health services if you get really ill or you have not got better after a couple of weeks.

Isn't that what we used to do if you got flu?


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## Bruce Stephens

Eddy Edson said:


> Further, it looks like the same kind of mortality risk profile as flu: older people, comorbidities etc.



As far as I understand it the profile's a bit different in that very young people aren't dying. (With most infections very young and very old people are hit hardest.) That may be because any deaths in very young children have been assumed to be from flu and not well investigated, I guess.


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## Eddy Edson

Bruce Stephens said:


> As far as I understand it the profile's a bit different in that very young people aren't dying. (With most infections very young and very old people are hit hardest.) That may be because any deaths in very young children have been assumed to be from flu and not well investigated, I guess.



No, I think you're right - youngsters seem OK.


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## Bruce Stephens

Eddy Edson said:


> No, I think you're right - youngsters seem OK.



And (in case any politicians are reading) that's not an argument for keeping schools open. The issue with children and infectious diseases is precisely that they (usually) don't get very sick. It seems to be a good idea to vaccinate children against seasonal flu largely in order to protect older people (such as their grandparents). (Whether closing schools would help or not is a question for modeling, but the question's not really about whether children might be harmed by the infection. The reason you might close schools is to protect everyone else.)


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## grovesy

Bruce Stephens said:


> And (in case any politicians are reading) that's not an argument for keeping schools open. The issue with children and infectious diseases is precisely that they (usually) don't get very sick. It seems to be a good idea to vaccinate children against seasonal flu largely in order to protect older people (such as their grandparents). (Whether closing schools would help or not is a question for modeling, but the question's not really about whether children might be harmed by the infection. The reason you might close schools is to protect everyone else.)


I thought youngsters were offered the Flu as as a nasal spray these days.


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## Bruce Stephens

grovesy said:


> I thought youngsters were offered the Flu as as a nasal spray these days.



I think they are, yes. And I think the main reason is that the modeling suggests it'll reduce serious illness and deaths amongst the elderly. (We're mostly not thinking of the children here, except as inconveniently healthy flu carriers.)


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## mikeyB

Eddy should take heart from the fact that the only country in the world which didn’t have a case of Spanish Flu in 1918/19 was Australia. Every ship arriving in port was quarantined until proven to be disease free. 

If Spanish flu had struck in the age of international air travel, half the world population would have shuffled off this mortal coil.

Incidentally, Spanish Flu is a misnomer. It originated in Armerica. Patient One was a young farmer who caught it from one of his chickens, before signing up for the war, thus killing American troops on their crowded ship before they ever set foot in the trenches. He survived.


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## Eddy Edson

mikeyB said:


> Eddy should take heart from the fact that the only country in the world which didn’t have a case of Spanish Flu in 1918/19 was Australia. Every ship arriving in port was quarantined until proven to be disease free.



Which actually caused some mutinies among troops returing from France, stuck on their ships ...

Actually it didn't work so well and the flu ended up killing about 15K people in 1919 in Oz, with about 30% infection rate, like eg the US. But Oz does tend to be good at the whole quarantine thing (which has darker manifestations eg with refugees). It's kind of an accepted part of the culture, which looks good in this case, given the huge success China apparently has had with concerted community-supported quarantine & isolation measures.

[Simple childhood lessons: Eg you're not allowed to carry fruit across state borders, to stop the spread of fruitflies which can destroy orchards, and clearing fruit out of the stationwagon and putting it in the bins provided at border crossings is a familiar family holiday ritual, teaching need for constant vigilance etc etc.]

See the WHO Task Force report just released: https://www.who.int/docs/default-so...na-joint-mission-on-covid-19-final-report.pdf

Message: It spreads by personal contact (not thru the air) in households; China has quickly implemented an amazing country-wide identification, tracking, isolation regime with community support; it's been super effective in halting progression. Also, CFR's have very quickly dropped to sub 1% levels even at ground-zero as care standards evolved:



Without these concerted measures, the thing spreads super quickly.


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## Josh DUK

Here is our statement regarding the coronavirus. 








						Coronavirus and diabetes updates
					

All the coronavirus information below applies to the whole of the UK, unless specified. We've noted where are some differences in guidance and diabetes services across the UK.




					www.diabetes.org.uk


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## Josh DUK

The Secretary of State for Health and Social Care, Matt Hancock has launched an expanded public health awareness campaign on COVID-19 (Coronavirus).



It urges people to wash their hands more often for 20 seconds.  You can find their campaign on their social media channels below.

Twitter: 



__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1235096386506350592


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## atoll

great advice if we are in any way going to try to delay the virus from affecting us all, at the same time.

Those that can should also immediately start reducing social contact as per NHS instructions ie  no touching , social distancing ,isolation and avoiding all but essential travel.
human to human transmission is the prime vector, as well as surfaces in public pedestrian high traffic areas.


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## MikeTurin

Josh DUK said:


> The Secretary of State for Health and Social Care, Matt Hancock has launched an expanded public health awareness campaign on COVID-19 (Coronavirus).
> 
> View attachment 13485
> 
> It urges people to wash their hands more often for 20 seconds.  You can find their campaign on their social media channels below.
> 
> Twitter:
> 
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1235096386506350592


Two things. 
One is funny, because this poster has some Scarfolk council vibe. I suppose beacause the Scarfolk posters are a parody of actual NHS ones made in the '70s
The not so funny one is that when virologistst acted scared in Italy and a lot of people dismissed it, I was concerned. Today we had more than 100 deaths, hospitals are collapsing, the government has made aan emergency decree that is just a step behind declairng a curfew. Pubs are closing in half of northern italy after 6 pm. Nurser are working 15 hours a day and sleeping in hospitals. Politicians got ill.

Looks that the virus is spreading in France too.


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## Wirrallass

Bulgarian Artist Responds To The First Cases Of Coronavirus In His Country By Putting Masks On Statues In Sofia To Show How Insignificant It Is
					

On Sunday, Bulgaria confirmed four coronavirus cases out of 70 people tested—the first such confirmed cases in the country. Bulgarian photographer Ivan Shishiev shows people in his country that the panic caused by the coronavirus is unnecessary.




					www.boredpanda.com
				



WL


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## Wirrallass

I'm concerned and don't know what to do! I have a hospital appt this week that I've waited * 6months for. I'm equipped with anti-bacterial gel, tissues but no mask. Not sure if I should cancel and reschedule my appointment.
WL

Edited *


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## Bruce Stephens

Wirralass said:


> Not sure if I should cancel and reschedule my appointment.



I think I'd still go if I were you. Just try not to hang around in the hospital any longer than necessary, wash your hands on leaving. (Most likely nobody in the hospital has this virus anyway.) (And don't worry about not having a mask; they're more useful for people who're already infected anyway.)


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## Sally71

My daughter is due for her annual review next week, the appointment has already been postponed twice (nothing to do with coronavirus!) so we are jolly well still going unless anyone from the hospital contacts us and tells us not to!


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## Wirrallass

Thank you @Bruce Stephen's & *@Sally71. You've helped me make up my mind. I will attend my hospital appointment.
Sally I hope your daughters review goes well next week.
Best wishes.
WL
Edited *


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## Eddy Edson

Here in Oz, I've got an eye specialist appointment on Mon.  Just checked & they're doing business-as-usual but "being highly skeptical", whatever that means.

Worried that there might be a bit of not-happening-here locally. We're in the middle of a big arts festival with lots of international visitors, but no talk of closures etc in this city. Hopefully this won't start looking dumb over the next few weeks. 

A handful of cases diagnosed locally, all travellers from red spots. Which might make us look like Lombardy 3-4 weeks ago ...


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## Neens

Bruce Stephens said:


> And (in case any politicians are reading) that's not an argument for keeping schools open. The issue with children and infectious diseases is precisely that they (usually) don't get very sick. It seems to be a good idea to vaccinate children against seasonal flu largely in order to protect older people (such as their grandparents). (Whether closing schools would help or not is a question for modeling, but the question's not really about whether children might be harmed by the infection. The reason you might close schools is to protect everyone else.)


I guess they may still carry the disease. It isn't just the children schools would be shut for, it is the contact of 600 plus families I guess.


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## Neens

Neens said:


> I guess they may still carry the disease. It isn't just the children schools would be shut for, it is the contact of 600 plus families I guess.


 disease = virus (too used to writing about diabetes)!


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## Neens

Sorry Bruce just re-read your msg to politicians, and you're saying the same thing.


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## grovesy

Wirralass said:


> Thank you @Bruce Stephen's & *@Sally71. You've helped me make up my mind. I will attend my hospital appointment.
> Sally I hope your daughters review goes well next week.
> Best wishes.
> WL
> Edited *


I would go too! 
The thing is if this is going to last as long as they predict, if you cancel and are giving an another appointment there is higher chance of that getting cancelled.


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## eggyg

I know it’s not quite the same as a medical appointment but Mr Eggy has a hair appointment today,  and our hairdresser’s daughter ( keep up) goes to the largest secondary school in the city and yesterday a teacher there was confirmed with the virus after returning from Milan. It’s getting a bit close for comfort now. I was all keep calm and carry on until I found this out. I’m not worried about me, even though I’m spleenless, but as some of you know Mr Eggy has a chronic and complicated heart condition. He says I am being daft and it’ll be fine. Am I being daft?


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## Northerner

eggyg said:


> I know it’s not quite the same as a medical appointment but Mr Eggy has a hair appointment today,  and our hairdresser’s daughter ( keep up) goes to the largest secondary school in the city and yesterday a teacher there was confirmed with the virus after returning from Milan. It’s getting a bit close for comfort now. I was all keep calm and carry on until I found this out. I’m not worried about me, even though I’m spleenless, but as some of you know Mr Eggy has a chronic and complicated heart condition. He says I am being daft and it’ll be fine. Am I being daft?


There was a guy on the TV last night who is self-isolating as he has cystic fibrosis and had a double lung transplant a few years ago - it would clearly be disastrous should he get it. His wife is with him and his friends and family do his shopping and leave it at the door. I suppose it's a personal choice as to how much you take steps to avoid it, but I can understand your worries


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## AJLang

eggyg said:


> I know it’s not quite the same as a medical appointment but Mr Eggy has a hair appointment today,  and our hairdresser’s daughter ( keep up) goes to the largest secondary school in the city and yesterday a teacher there was confirmed with the virus after returning from Milan. It’s getting a bit close for comfort now. I was all keep calm and carry on until I found this out. I’m not worried about me, even though I’m spleenless, but as some of you know Mr Eggy has a chronic and complicated heart condition. He says I am being daft and it’ll be fine. Am I being daft?


Eggyg no you’re not being daft. I’m staying in as much as I can at the moment. With my diabetes and other conditions I need to absolutely minimise my risk of getting it because nobody in a hospital would understand how weirdly my pump settings (basal and bolus) need to be changed dependent upon what I do/don’t eat because of the gastroparesis.  I will go out for walks with my wheelchair when Mark can take me places where there aren’t hardly any people but that’s it for the moment. I would also stick to hospital appointments because as has been said the longer this virus continues the more chance there is of appointments being postponed for a long while. My main concern is that Mark goes on a bus to work in a heavily populated university. But we’ve made the decision that if/when the country reaches 1000 confirmed cases that he will drive to work.


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## Northerner

A different situation to the man I mentioned earlier, but who also feels at high risk:









						'Vulnerable' man self-isolates over coronavirus risk
					

A man with health conditions says he is self-isolating in his home for the foreseeable future.



					www.bbc.co.uk


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## silentsquirrel

Keep safe, @eggyg  and Mr eggyg.  Haircut not worth the risk, however slight.  Not daft at all.


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## eggyg

We went to the hairdressers. The teacher in question hasn’t been at school since 26th February and didn’t teach our hairdressers’s daughter so we felt we were reasonably safe. The school hasn’t closed.


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## Amity Island

mikeyB said:


> Just how dangerous is this new coronavirus? The number of infections which have caused death currently runs at less than 1 in 400 of cases. That compares to both measles and flu. In reality it is less dangerous than either. Measles can leave behind permanent neurological damage.
> 
> The deaths from the new coronavirus are not entirely due to the virus. As happens with flu deaths, it depends on concomitant health conditions - the old and frail, smokers, those with significantly compromised immune systems and the very young. Remember that most simple colds are caused by coronaviruses- there are around 100 types of coronavirus, which tend to circulate in geographic areas. Live in the same place for years and you build up immunity. And that’s why if you move to a new area, you tend to catch every cold going until your immunity builds against the local bugs.
> 
> Most importantly just because you have diabetes don’t think that you have a compromised immune system against viruses. You don’t. It’s bacterial infections that like diabetes. Viruses couldn’t care less. When you get a cold, it affects your diabetic control, but that’s because of cortisol and other stuff that your body is using to fight the infection. Get a bacterial infection, and the bacteria love all that sugar, so they are dangerous for diabetics.
> 
> Will there be a pandemic of the new coronavirus? Quite possibly. Will it decimate the population? Obviously no. The new virus will join the happy band of of all those coronaviruses that cause our colds. There may be bad colds, till we build up our immunity, but so what?
> 
> Don’t fear coronavirus, fear the escape of Ebola fever from Africa. Catch that, don’t start any long books.


Hello Mikey,
The unique thing about this *CO*rona*VI*rus*D*isease*19* is that your body doesn't build an immunity to it after catching it and thus, it can be caught over and over again. It could be very difficult to contain and I think that's why all the "hype" and "overreaction".


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## Bruce Stephens

Amity Island said:


> The unique thing about this *CO*rona*VI*rus*D*isease*19* is that your body doesn't build an immunity to it after catching it and thus, it can be caught over and over again.



We don't know that. As far as I can tell the experts are assuming that that's not true at all and that people who recover will have immunity (though for an unknown period), and that the handful of anecdotes suggesting otherwise are due to errors in testing (probably thinking that people have cleared the virus when in fact they haven't).

It would be very very bad if we couldn't gain natural immunity from the thing.


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## Eddy Edson

Bruce Stephens said:


> We don't know that. As far as I can tell the experts are assuming that that's not true at all and that people who recover will have immunity (though for an unknown period), and that the handful of anecdotes suggesting otherwise are due to errors in testing (probably thinking that people have cleared the virus when in fact they haven't).



That's my understanding also.


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## Amity Island

Bruce Stephens said:


> We don't know that. As far as I can tell the experts are assuming that that's not true at all and that people who recover will have immunity (though for an unknown period), and that the handful of anecdotes suggesting otherwise are due to errors in testing (probably thinking that people have cleared the virus when in fact they haven't).
> 
> It would be very very bad if we couldn't gain natural immunity from the thing.


Hi Bruce, 
What you say is also valid. It really depends on who you are listening to. There's mixed evidence about whether it can be re-caught (or perhaps it just doesn't go away for many weeks). One of the original doctors at Wuhan made the observation that patients had redeveloped symptoms after they thought they were clear of the virus. Like you said, "will have immunity for an unknown period".
There probably isn't enough evidence to prove either way at the moment.


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## Eddy Edson

Amity Island said:


> Hi Bruce,
> What you say is also valid. It really depends on who you are listening to. There's mixed evidence about whether it can be re-caught (or perhaps it just doesn't go away for many weeks). One of the original doctors at Wuhan made the observation that patients had redeveloped symptoms after they thought they were clear of the virus. Like you said, "will have immunity for an unknown period".
> There probably isn't enough evidence to prove either way at the moment.



Anyway, this was the comment the other day from a top Chinese ICU doctor, as authoritative as anything you'll find IMO:

*Threat of Re-infection*
_Reports that people who have recovered and been discharged from hospital later test positive again -- and even die from the disease -- have ignited fears that the virus can somehow re-emerge.

Du said that patients becoming re-infected again within days of leaving the hospital makes no sense “theoretically” as the anti-bodies in their bloodstream generated from fighting the disease do not disappear so quickly, although they don’t necessarily stay forever.

“What we need to look at in terms of those who tested positive again is concerns over the authenticity of their negative results,” he said. For example, samples taken from different areas of the same patient could test differently depending on where the virus resides.

Test kits made by different manufacturers could also have inconsistencies that impact test results, he said._

The tests aren't perfect; you'd expect some false negatives to go positive on re-test.





__





						Bloomberg - Are you a robot?
					





					www.bloomberg.com


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## C&E Guy

I'm working from home today.

Not because of the virus - we've had a lot of snow overnight and I ain't going out in that!!


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## eggyg

Just had confirmation that a pupil at the school where the teacher worked, has now tested positive. They still haven’t closed the school but have given parents permission to keep their children away. There’s an uproar apparently. Also found our from my daughter that the teacher’s son is at another school with my grandson! I’m hoping he is self isolating now. These are the two largest schools in the area. I must admit I am starting to worry a little bit. Obviously it helps that we’re retired and don’t have to go anywhere but do we avoid our family? It’s a tough one.


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## Eddy Edson

IMO it's completely appropriate to be worried and taking steps.

My brother's partner has horrendous lung and heart probs and T1D. In a normal winter she needs hospital care if she gets a whiff of a cold & she's on oxygen routinely. If this place turns into Lombardy in a few weeks - and why not? - she probably wouldn't make it thru triage if she got sick. She should be self-isolating right now, even though there's only a handful of cases locally ...

As whoever said: steps which look alarmist before the exponential growth hits, will look like they would have been plain common-sense, when it does.


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## mikeyB

Yup, over reaction is only over reaction with hindsight.

I’m studiously self isolating. If that means missing a home game, then so be it. If that means not getting to see my new granddaughter then so be it. It’s not forever, so why not do it?

And eggyg, those schools should have been closed. It only takes one to have picked up the bug from the teacher or her son, then you have a cascade.


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## everydayupsanddowns

The tone certainly seems to be changing in the last few days.


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## Ljc

We’re staying home , not exactly self isolating but people are only allowed if absolutely necessary, ie boiler breakdown etc and now having all our shopping delivered. 
My dad has COPD ,  no spleen , a simple cold goes straight to his chest and needs antibiotics though strong for his 94 years  , nowhere near as good as he used to be. Me  66 , Diabetes, Asthma  my immune system is not what it once was and CKD . Neither of us wants to bring home even a cold virus to the other so we decided to do this, it would not be possible if I were not retired and still in my old job, which was face to face with the public.


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## Felinia

Having seen how the number of cases suddenly increase exponentially, and that people are infectious for 5 days before diagnosis, I made the decision yesterday to cancel all appointments for 6+ weeks and self isolate, before cases are reported in my area.  It's only a matter of time.  I'd been a bit casual about it all before, but now I'd rather be accused of over-reacting, than seriously ill in a few weeks time, or worse.  
It must be a nightmare for the Government to get the balance right - avoid mass panic, have as much help and resources as possible in place.  But I now think it is time for everyone but essential personnel and services to shut down.  No social gatherings, mass events, gyms and leisure centres closed, working from home.  
You've only to look at how South Korea managed a much better containment by adopting these measures quickly, rather than Italy and France.  A case of horse and stable door in Italy!  Apparently one super spreader infected thousands before diagnosis.  
Talking to the dentist, chiropodist, beautician and osteopath when I cancelled my appointments, all said they would have to close their businesses anyway to look after their children when the schools were closed.  The economic knock on effect will also be tremendous.  Troubling times.  Fortunately my prescriptions will last for 5 weeks, and I hope that's long enough.


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## Toucan

I made the same decision as you @Felinia a few days ago.

I've come to terms with it, and that it's a different life style for a while.It's a chance for some of those mini-projects that I've had in mind to do but never get to, to come to the surface.
So that big heap of old family photos may get sorted and digitised, the deeds of our old house may come out of the drawer, and the story of it's history and those who lived here might get written, and the garden may get a bit of a make-over. - but I will miss seeing my family and friends.

That's how I feel now, and let's hope that's sustainable over however long this is going to take.
We may all need the forum more than ever to keep each other's spirits up.
Best wishes everyone.


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## grovesy

Despite my son being off work with chestness and cough for over a week, having recently returned from a short trip to France. I have not changed much that I do.


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## nonethewiser

eggyg said:


> They still haven’t closed the school but have given parents permission to keep their children away. There’s an uproar apparently.



School is now closing, check border crack & deekaboot at 6pm.


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## eggyg

nonethewiser said:


> School is now closing, check border crack & deekaboot at 6pm.


Saw it on News and Star FB page. Allegedly the pupils are now wandering around town spitting at the general public. I hope that isn’t true but my worries are they won’t stay at home and congregate in MacDonalds or Greggs or parks. Hopefully the school will send work via the internet to keep them home.


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## grovesy

You are assuming they all have internet at home!


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## Sally71

Well I bet there aren’t many of them who don't have smartphones with internet !


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## grovesy

I saw a teacher on the news discussing school closures, even he acknowledge the fact that some puplis would not have access to devices.


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## trophywench

The economical effect is equally scary as the health effect for most people with a brain.


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## MikeTurin

Bruce Stephens said:


> It would be very very bad if we couldn't gain natural immunity from the thing.


It could be also that in the early days the virus mutated somehow, having just jumped species the virus is more unstable.


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## MikeTurin

Sally71 said:


> Well I bet there aren’t many of them who don't have smartphones with internet !


I am working remotely, because i have fiber and the company laptop has a nice gigabit ethernet connector, I could make video calls. But in other places, like my parents home, there is only a 10 mpbs copper ADSL falling to 50 in the evening because the line is on poles. 4G coverage is ok, but a thing is sending comments on instagram another thing is following 4 hours of videos.

Not to mention that children under 10 rarely have a smartphone.


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## Kaylz

MikeTurin said:


> Not to mention that children under 10 rarely have a smartphone.


might be true where you are but sadly it is quite common these days


----------

