# COVID-19: Proof of full vaccination condition of entry to nightclubs from end of September



## Bruce Stephens (Jul 19, 2021)

Surprise (to me) news. Negative tests won't be an option.









						COVID-19: Proof of full vaccination condition of entry to nightclubs from end of September
					

Proof that people are fully vaccinated against coronavirus will be required to enter nightclubs and other "crowded venues" from the autumn, the government has said.




					news.sky.com


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## Bruce Stephens (Jul 19, 2021)

Amity Island said:


> It's not just night clubs, Boris said it (only those double vaccinated over 18) will apply to all venues where lots of people gather. Basically baring anyone who isn't double vaccinated from ever entering theatres, sporting venues, social clubs and music venues for the rest of their lives.


Other "crowded venues", yes. I think we'll need to see what this actually ends up being. I'm guessing he'd have significant problems getting votes for it in parliament. I think it might even be a bluff intended to increase vaccination among 18-30 people. (Something similar seems to have worked in France. There I think the threat was double vaccination or tests, but you'll pay for each test, for a much broader range of places.)


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## Bruce Stephens (Jul 19, 2021)

Amity Island said:


> The government seem to have no faith in the vaccines. e.g aren't those at the venues who are vaccinated protected?


You're thinking of vaccination being a personal thing. But in a population context, more people vaccinated is better: vaccination reduces transmission.

The goal (I presume) was that with high enough vaccination we'd see cases drop to essentially nothing (as happened somewhat briefly in Israel). Then we wouldn't need vaccine certificates or to think about vaccinating children.

Even with the delta variant more people vaccinated is better. Should mean fewer people ending up in hospital, fewer people feeling sick, fewer people with long term effects from infection. And maybe with enough people vaccinated we'll still get to enough immunity that cases will fall. (Maybe we'd also get that with lots of people getting infected, but it seems that at least some people are saying natural immunity might be shorter lived or otherwise less strong (perhaps working a bit less well against variants) than that generated by the vaccines. If that's true it may well still be necessary to get a really high vaccination rate.)


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## Bruce Stephens (Jul 20, 2021)

Amity Island said:


> OK, so it's not that they are being refused entry on the risk they pose to other people who are fully vaccinated, it's just another way of coercing people into getting vaccinated.


That's my best guess. And I agree it's probably a bit crude. On the other hand what Macron did was also not something I'd think would be sensible, but it seems to have moved things a bit.

I'd have thought something a bit sillier would work better. The kinds of daft things that are happening in some US states. So free ice cream for the summer if you get vaccinated, that kind of thing. It's not going to push people who're really against it, but might be enough for people who're just waiting for some reason.


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## Eddy Edson (Jul 20, 2021)

Bruce Stephens said:


> That's my best guess. And I agree it's probably a bit crude. On the other hand what Macron did was also not something I'd think would be sensible, but it seems to have moved things a bit.
> 
> I'd have thought something a bit sillier would work better. The kinds of daft things that are happening in some US states. So free ice cream for the summer if you get vaccinated, that kind of thing. It's not going to push people who're really against it, but might be enough for people who're just waiting for some reason.


One driver I think is the realisation that with delta you have an Reff of 6+ or something like that, which means that for "herd immunity" you need to get vax/acquired immunity rates up to ~90% on the usual little toy calculation.  You need really high compliance to avoid a whole load of hospitalisations and deaths. How to get that in a hesitant country like France without something a bit heavy handed?

(BTW, people in the UK are actually OK with the fairly clear prospect of 200 or more deaths per day pretty soon??)


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## Eddy Edson (Jul 21, 2021)

Amity Island said:


> At the moment there seems to be a suggestion that there is only one route out of this chaos and that is the vaccines. What about naturual aquired immunity? Yes I hear people say "but we don't know how long this lasts" but going by other viruses it can often be life long immunity and we still don't know whether this is the case. We also still don't know whether the vaccines will prevent long covid so there should really be some balance in strategies, at least people who chose not to or can't get vaccinated should be allowed into venues without a double vaccine.


Because now that the UK is letting it rip, basically everybody without vax/acquired immunity will probably get infected pretty quickly. On current best estimates from the modellers (entirely consistent with the numbers being seen at the moment), about 0.2% of them will die from covid - before considerations of swamped hospitals, long covid etc etc etc.

With vax and natural immunity at current levels, that's a lot of dead people - 10,000+ direct deaths, on current estimates - and a lot more seriously ill.

You can only make the outcomes better by vaxing as fast as you can. Delta moves so quickly that anything short of a strict lockdown isn't likely to slow it down very much, as we're seeing now in Oz. 24 hours from exposure to being infectious, and a far bigger rate of superspreader events.


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## Eddy Edson (Jul 21, 2021)

Amity Island said:


> Also, what I am saying is, they are not even bothering to see if someone _has_ aquired immunity, it's a not a route being explored at all. Which means people aren't being allowed into a music venue without having a medical treatment first.


Oh right. I dunno - is there a reliable test for acquired immunity?


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## Robin (Jul 21, 2021)

Amity Island said:


> Also, what I am saying is, they are not even bothering to see if someone _has_ aquired immunity, it's a not a route being explored at all





Eddy Edson said:


> Oh right. I dunno - is there a reliable test for acquired immunity?


'They' are bothering, in that there is research constantly going on to measure and assess acquired immunity, I had to help my son collect a test tube of blood from a finger last week (a lot more than you need for a diabetes fingerprick test) for an ongoing study by Kings' College, looking specifically for antibodies produced as a result of contracting Covid, not from the vaccine, (apparently the antibodies differ slightly, according to the blurb he was sent).
What isn’t available yet, I think, is a reliable test to see if anybody who has had covid is capable of getting it again, and whether people need antibodies, or whether their T cells will fend off a further attack.
I really don’t think I'm the 'go to' person to answer this sort of question, though, because although I take a passing interest, and think about what I read a lot, I certainly don’t keep up a comprehensive study of what research is going on.


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## Bruce Stephens (Jul 21, 2021)

Eddy Edson said:


> Oh right. I dunno - is there a reliable test for acquired immunity?


I think proposals have been along the lines of a positive PCR test within the last 6 months (but older than a couple of weeks, presumably).

It's possible to measure antibodies. The problem there is that the ONS estimates that about 90% of people would show antibodies if tested and that's been the case for a couple of weeks now with not much sign of that slowing infection.

I get the impression that people think naturally acquired immunity is much more variable (and suspected to be shorter lived and weaker) than that generated by the vaccines. I'm not sure how confident anyone is about those, but they'd fit neatly with the multiple waves in India and Brazil (and parts of the UK for that matter, where Sunetra Gupta among others have repeatedly suggested the pandemic is basically over because herd immunity has been reached).


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## Bruce Stephens (Jul 21, 2021)

Amity Island said:


> Surley a medical treatment shouldn't be mandatory to dance in a room or to watch a concert or west end show?


It's a departure from what we'd normally accept, but I'm not sure how problematic it would be.

This is a very infectious respiratory virus for which we have really effective and safe vaccines, so what's the problem in expecting everyone to take the vaccine, really? Obviously there are a small number of people who shouldn't have a vaccine and we'd want those to be exempted somehow. But why care about those who merely choose not to have it?

Would be different for (for example) shops, but non-essential things like nightclubs and theatres? Just take the vaccine or wait and stop complaining.

(I still doubt it'll actually happen. I think there'll be enough opposition in Parliament that it wouldn't get through without the current sorts of additions, allowing a negative test for example.)


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## Bruce Stephens (Jul 23, 2021)

Amity Island said:


> First it's clubs, next it will be any venues.


From what I read it sounded like Italy's plans were the same as France's (so vaccination or a test which you'd have to pay for). So it might just be Italy copying France (given that France's seemed to be working, for some definition of working), or maybe some attempt at a coherent policy across neighbouring countries.


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## Bruce Stephens (Jul 23, 2021)

Amity Island said:


> Yes, some may argue, "you do't have to go into a nightclub" but that argument can hardly be used for University.


If we pretend the policy on nightclubs is about infection control (and that they're intending to actually do it) then the case for requiring vaccination for universities would be even stronger, I think.

Can't see the government trying to do what the UCU wants. It's too late now, and anyway, much safer politically to leave it to individual universities. (Who'll probably also dither until it's too late to do anything.)

In principle I can see the appeal. Nobody wants next year to be anything like last year for students, and if a university had a really high vaccination rate I think you could imagine there'd be a good chance they could offer something close to a normal experience of university. (Though the UCU doesn't really sell it well since they're still anticipating masks everywhere and things.)


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## mikeyB (Jul 23, 2021)

I've recently renewed my season ticket at Blackburn Rovers. At the moment, there are no conditions applied, but it's a fair bet masks will be mandatory given the rate of infection in the BB area, as the Covid App keeps reminding me. They just didn't know when I phoned them to renew. It's not what you would call a crowded environment in the wheelchair area. The wheelie guy next to me thought he would be able to get a Blackburn end ticket this season - maybe he decided defrauding the DWP wouldn't work much longer. 

For sure, I'm brassed off with watching home games on the computer through the EFL app. Doesn't operate in HD.


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