# Corona virus statistics site



## Northerner (Mar 10, 2020)

I believe this is the 'go to' site for the most up to date statistics:









						COVID-19 Map - Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Resource Center
					

Coronavirus COVID-19 Global Cases by the Center for Systems Science and Engineering (CSSE) at Johns Hopkins University (JHU)




					coronavirus.jhu.edu


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## Eddy Edson (Mar 10, 2020)

A point which is being made a lot but worth repeating: Italy on 26th Feb had about the same number of confirmed cases as the UK did on March 9th. Now the whole country is locked down. You really want get ahead of the curve with this thing.

Twitter has some harrowing threads from hospital workers in Lombardy. Eg: 



__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1237142891077697538
_Patients above 65 or younger with comorbidities are not even assessed by ITU, I am not saying not tubed, I’m saying not assessed and no ITU staff attends when they arrest. _


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## Cazzablanca (Mar 10, 2020)

I feel sick


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## atoll (Mar 10, 2020)

"Patients above 65 or younger with comorbidities are not even assessed by ITU, I am not saying not tubed, I’m saying not assessed and no ITU staff attends when they arrest. "

sounds like this probably explains the lack of guidance by PHE for diabetics,the elderly and other at risk in the community.
best advice is isolate for 4 months till after the peak as the health service may have some critical care beds available  by then,that is if the powers that be do not lock the whole country down in 3-3 days,or find a vaccine in the next 2 weeks.


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## Cazzablanca (Mar 10, 2020)

I agree but it sounds like it may be a year to 18 months.  And what about our partners who go out to work?


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## atoll (Mar 10, 2020)

Cazzablanca said:


> I agree but it sounds like it may be a year to 18 months.  And what about our partners who go out to work?



everybody should have a shed  or tent in the garden, isolate yourself there,the wife can have the house and still go to work!
if they leave your rations outside for you to pick up, you all should be fine as long as you don't come within 4.5 meters of each other.


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## Cazzablanca (Mar 10, 2020)

Joking aside I've got my caravan out the back. I could go into that, but where to empty the chemi loo every few days without coming into the house 
Also how would you know they've got it if it "hides" for up to 14 days.  Or just camp out from now till it all goes away sometime in 2021


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## atoll (Mar 10, 2020)

Cazzablanca said:


> Joking aside I've got my caravan out the back. I could go into that, but where to empty the chemi loo every few days without coming into the house
> Also how would you know they've got it if it "hides" for up to 14 days.  Or just camp out from now till it all goes away sometime in 2021



better to use a bucket with a couple of bin bags in it instead of the porta loo,add sawdust as you use it to soak up liquids and stop smells.
before it gets too full tie off the 1st bag,then tie off the second bag,remove from bucket and place in a third bag. this can be left outside to be disposed of by your support team if you are infectious.and in isolation.
if you are  in isolation and not infectious just pour the porta potty down the drain or on the daffodils.

you will not know,but you have to treat every contact outside of your green zone,as if it were a red zone.

for those in isolation ,trying not to get infected the ,logic is that sooner or later you will get infected,but the longer you can delay that the greater the chance is that infections are dropping after the peak ,and  good treatment has been found,or a vaccine,ie the research phase to mitigate the disease.


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## Cazzablanca (Mar 10, 2020)

So really there's no way of avoiding it, only delaying it


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## Eddy Edson (Mar 10, 2020)

Cazzablanca said:


> So really there's no way of avoiding it, only delaying it



The evidence so far is that infection chains are easy to break, but it requires widespread testing and aggressive tracking and isolation.

Eg: In Hubei, the Chinese province where the thing started and the hardest hit, the proportion of people infected is ~ 0.1%, way way less than you expect from normal flu. And the number of new cases has slowed to a trickle.


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## Eddy Edson (Mar 10, 2020)

Be like Korea:



Widespread testing, aggressive tracking and isolation => new cases falling sharply after a short period where growth was exponential.

Also: quickly ramp up ventilation, beds, ICU staffing to reduce death rate. Raw CFR in Sth Korea is 0.7%, despite having been overwhelmed in the early days.


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## Cazzablanca (Mar 10, 2020)

Can we do any of those things here?  I've read truly shocking figures about intensive care beds here.


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## Eddy Edson (Mar 10, 2020)

Cazzablanca said:


> Can we do any of those things here?  I've read truly shocking figures about intensive care beds here.



If the govt isn't pulling out all stops to increase ICU beds, ventilation resources etc etc they are totally inept muttonheads. Plenty of warning, crystal clear what needs to be done.


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## grovesy (Mar 11, 2020)

Eddy Edson said:


> If the govt isn't pulling out all stops to increase ICU beds, ventilation resources etc etc they are totally inept muttonheads. Plenty of warning, crystal clear what needs to be done.


It is not just a case of increasing ICU beds and ventilators, it is the trained people to look after those in those beds too. In Italy they have people being treated in Theaters and corridors.


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## grovesy (Mar 11, 2020)

Cazzablanca said:


> So really there's no way of avoiding it, only delaying it


The aim of delaying the curve is hopeful there will be less strain on resources then. They seem to be suggesting we should be coming to the end of the normal cold and flu season, in the coming weeks.


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## mikeyB (Mar 11, 2020)

But this is not a normal cold or flu. There is not a shred of evidence that spread is hindered by external temperature, it's only a hope.

As a matter of interest, my daughter and son-in-law have imposed isolation on us. They are young and healthy and have forbidden me from going shopping either at the local shop or in the village. Or to the chemist. A complete triumph for an idler like me.


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## Cazzablanca (Mar 11, 2020)

No but less complications from colds and other viruses will give a bit more bed capacity for this nasty virus.   

I wish my mother in law would bloomin isolate.  She won't do that until official advice says so.  I would then go and stay with her while my husband still has to go out to work and mix with who knows who who day.


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## mikeyB (Mar 11, 2020)

Aye, it's easier to do when you're retired. I don't mind self isolating, we're quite content in our own company. Well, with me killing dragons on the computer, and Mrs B watching reruns of the entire modern Dr Who on BBC iPlayer.


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## Sharron1 (Mar 11, 2020)

Eddy Edson said:


> If the govt isn't pulling out all stops to increase ICU beds, ventilation resources etc etc they are totally inept muttonheads. Plenty of warning, crystal clear what needs to be done.


I think totally inept muttonheads is about right.


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