# Dominic Cummings claims ministers backed herd immunity against Covid



## Northerner (May 23, 2021)

Dominic Cummings has launched an extraordinary new attempt to destroy the government’s credibility over Covid-19, claiming that ministers had backed a policy of “herd immunity” then lied about having done so.

In an astonishing series of tweets on Saturday just days before he is due to appear before a Commons inquiry, the prime minister’s former adviser in effect accused the health secretary, Matt Hancock, of lying about the “herd immunity” plan and talking “bullshit” when he denied it to the media.

Cummings also claimed that if “competent” people had been in charge of Covid strategy in its early stages, then it may have been possible to avoid the first lockdown, and certainly the second and third would not have been needed.

In one tweet Cummings, who was accused in various media reports early in the pandemic of himself backing the idea of herd immunity – a policy allowing people to catch Covid in order to boost the number with antibodies – said: “Media generally abysmal on covid but even I’ve been surprised by 1 thing: how many hacks have parroted Hancock’s line that ‘herd immunity wasn’t the plan’ when ‘herd immunity by Sep’ was *literally the official plan in all docs/graphs/meetings* until it was ditched”.









						Dominic Cummings claims ministers backed herd immunity against Covid
					

PM’s ex-adviser says if ‘competent’ people had been in charge at least two lockdowns could have been avoided




					www.theguardian.com
				




" the prime minister had announced a public inquiry to learn any lessons that needed to be learned" - yeah, right, an inquiry that won't be reporting until after the next election


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## Docb (May 23, 2021)

The problem with this sort of stuff is that Cummings' track record for openness, honesty and accurate reporting is just about on a par with that of government ministers.  

It would be quite funny, one set of PR merchants trying to out PR another set of PR merchants, if it were not quite so serious.


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## pm133 (May 23, 2021)

None of this matters right now in the scheme of things.
Governments around the world were faced with an unprecedented pandemic which no other government in living memory has had to deal with.
There was no script.

All of them had to make it up as they went along. From right wing governments through to left wing governments, not one of them had the right answer to this. Australia and New Zealand might THINK they have the answer but the reality is that they are only able to keep it at bay because they've shut out the outside world and look set to remain that way permanently unless they can convince their complacent, inward-looking populations to get vaccinated in sufficient numbers.

People like Cummings are only interested in themselves. It might make interesting reading for a few people but this is just trashy, gossipy tripe in the face of a reality of 140,000 people dead in the UK alone.

There's not a single person out there who would have handled this pandemic any better. I'm glad it wasn't me who had to make decisions about herd immunity.

The big lesson to be taken from the pandemic isn't about what Boris and Hancock did or didn't do. It's much simpler than that and is one word.

OBESITY.

It seems to be right at the root of everything our country does wrong in terms of the health of the population. While everyone is blaming Boris and young people for wanting to enjoy their lives in parks and on beaches, nobody seems to be looking at themselves. There's almost no sense of personal responsibility.
If we had no obesity, I am confident we'd have seen far fewer deaths from covid. Additionally, we'd be seeing far fewer deaths of a vast range of other conditions. It seems we simply don't care enough.

This must be the national wake up call for the UK to finally do something about this ruinous culture. Heavily tax takeaway food to the hilt (just like with cigarettes), make food manufacturers subject to almost pharma-standard food tests to ensure their food passes a much higher minimum health criteria on things like additives, fat, sugar, etc., impose limits on numbers of takeaways in a local area, run free local evening campaigns and classes showing people how to cook properly and cheaply using fresh food etc. Watching Jamie Oliver on TV isn't enough. It requires active participation which will also have social interaction benefits.

If we want the best chance of minimising the impact of the next pandemic, we must solve the obesity crisis in the UK as the absolute top priority in my opinion. No excuses.


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## pm133 (May 23, 2021)

Incicdentally, I am no fan of the Tories but if I was in charge, I would have been persuaded by the herd immunity argument.

I would not have emptied old people into care homes though.

Only once we were reaching capacity in the NHS would I have locked down although I might have been persuaded to follow other countries lead on that issue.

From that side of the pandemic, there was no guarantee of any vaccine and no obvious way of locking down without killing the economy - perhaps permanently. Lockdown didn't look a viable solution either because you lockdown, re-open and it all starts again. Herd immunity absolutely looked a reasonable bet. Not the only one. But it did look reasonable.
Now that we have the vaccine, there is no alternative to re-opening fully and getting in with normal life. There's no end game otherwise, unless someone else has a better idea.


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## pm133 (May 23, 2021)

Rant over. Phew I feel better for that.


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## Eddy Edson (May 23, 2021)

pm133 said:


> Australia and New Zealand might THINK they have the answer but the reality is that they are only able to keep it at bay because they've shut out the outside world and look set to remain that way permanently unless they can convince their complacent, inward-looking populations to get vaccinated in sufficient numbers.


We antipodeans have come through the pandemic with no excess mortality (in fact, negative excess mortality), mostly no "lock downs" or other restrictions for most of the time, strong economies and clear "exit strategies" with vaccination. What more could you ask for? 

And I've heard nothing to suggest that anybody has any good argument for why the UK in particular couldn't have done the same.  I don't think there was ever any consideration given to the strategy - just brush offs without any analysis: "we need to import food", "it would kill the economy" etc etc.  Childish, from where I sit.


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## pm133 (May 23, 2021)

Eddy Edson said:


> We antipodeans have come through the pandemic with no excess mortality (in fact, negative excess mortality), mostly no "lock downs" or other restrictions for most of the time, strong economies and clear "exit strategies" with vaccination. What more could you ask for?
> 
> And I've heard nothing to suggest that anybody has any good argument for why the UK in particular couldn't have done the same.  I don't think there was ever any consideration given to the strategy - just brush offs without any analysis: "we need to import food", "it would kill the economy" etc etc.  Childish, from where I sit.



You have not come through the pandemic at all. None of us have yet.
You have built up no natural immunity to this and have appalling levels of vaccination take-up.


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## Eddy Edson (May 23, 2021)

pm133 said:


> You have not come through the pandemic at all. None of us have yet.
> You have built up no natural immunity to this and have appalling levels of vaccination take-up.


"Appalling take-up" is journalist beat up, to a large extent. We started much later than you, on purpose, and we have had more supply constraints, but vax rates are accelerating. 

There certainly hasn't been the same urgency as in places which failed to implement good NPI strategies. And aspects of the fed govt's execution has been crappy. But we'll get there.


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## Amity Island (May 23, 2021)

pm133 said:


> There was no script.
> 
> All of them had to make it up as they went along. From right wing governments through to left wing governments, not one of them had the right answer to this.


Pm133,

Shortly before the worldwide coronavirus outbreak in 2019, event 201 took place, involving worldwide governments, scientists and doctors.

"Event 201 simulates an outbreak of a novel zoonotic coronavirus transmitted from bats to pigs to people that eventually becomes efficiently transmissible from person to person, leading to a severe pandemic. The pathogen and the disease it causes are modeled largely on SARS, but it is more transmissible in the community setting by people with mild symptoms."

"15 global business, government, and public health leaders were players in the simulation exercise that highlighted unresolved real-world policy and economic issues that could be solved with sufficient political will, financial investment, and attention now and in the future."

"Experts agree that it is only a matter of time before one of these epidemics becomes global—a pandemic with potentially catastrophic consequences.."









						About Event 201, a high-level pandemic exercise on October 18, 2019
					

Event 201 was a pandemic tabletop exercise that simulated a series of dramatic, scenario-based facilitated discussions, confronting difficult dilemmas associated with response to a hypothetical pandemic.




					www.centerforhealthsecurity.org
				












						The Event 201 scenario | A pandemic tabletop exercise
					

Event 201 simulates an outbreak of a novel zoonotic coronavirus transmitted from bats to pigs to people that eventually becomes efficiently transmissible from person to person, leading to a severe pandemic.




					www.centerforhealthsecurity.org


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## pm133 (May 23, 2021)

Eddy Edson said:


> "Appalling take-up" is journalist beat up, to a large extent. We started much later than you, on purpose, and we have had more supply constraints, but vax rates are accelerating.



I'm not sure why a country would deliberately delay vaccinating their vulnerable. That is a very odd thing to do.

It's not just journalism by the way.
It's your own medical experts saying it.  The Chief Health Officer for Victoria has been directly quoted as saying "Low vaccination coverage is the greatest risk to health in Australia today."

That's from his own Twitter feed:


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1394775239620382723
He's not alone in this viewpoint.

Glad to hear your vaccinations are picking up. In Scotland, ours seems to have slowed down considerably but most people now have had their 1st injection and a significant have had 2. Virtually all of our vulnerable groups are now fully vaccinated.

Having said all of this, I will admit to being relieved that I had the luxury of waiting to see how safe vaccines were before getting my 1st jab so I undrstand a bit of vaccine hesitancy but they have clearly been shown to be a lot safer than not having one and catching covid so I hope uptake improves across the world.


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## pm133 (May 23, 2021)

Amity Island said:


> Pm133,
> 
> Shortly before the worldwide coronavirus outbreak in 2019, event 201 took place, involving worldwide governments, scientists and doctors.
> 
> ...


Don't get me wrong.
I'm not defending anyone's actions here.
I just don't want to fall into the lazy habit of automatically blaming them either.
We could have helped ourselves individually by not becoming one of the most obese nations on earth. That is an appalling judgment on us all individually and at government level. There's just no soft soaping that.
When it happened to me, Boris Johnson wasn't in my house shovelling pizza into my mouth because I couldn't be bothered spending 15 minutes cooking fresh chicken in a sauce with some pasta. That was on me. Pure and simple. And it's a story you'll hear up and down the country in every single street if people are being genuinely honest. What Boris COULD have done, and could still do, is tax the backside off things like takeaway pizza. If each pizza cost £25 with a law against Buy One Get One Free, that would have been a nice incentive to help me stop (which I have now).

We have eaten ourselves to a health disaster as a nation. Unfortunately we're still at the point where far too many people either won't even acknowledge the problem or won't accept that they are to blame. Without that basic acceptance of the problem, it's hard to see how a solution can be achieved.


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## Bruce Stephens (May 23, 2021)

pm133 said:


> We have eaten ourselves to a health disaster as a nation.


When we're talking about such a large proportion of the population, surely talking about it as a problem of personal choices isn't that plausible? Surely it's more likely that our environment has changed (which is the product of lots of individual choices, sure, but it's not one that individuals have all that much power over)?


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## Amity Island (May 23, 2021)

pm133 said:


> Don't get me wrong.
> I'm not defending anyone's actions here.
> I just don't want to fall into the lazy habit of automatically blaming them either.
> We could have helped ourselves individually by not becoming one of the most obese nations on earth. That is an appalling judgment on us all individually and at government level. There's just no soft soaping that.
> ...


Hi Pm133,

I'm not criticising your post, so need to explain yourself. I like much of what you say and look forward to your posts. I was adding some info to your point about government not being prepared for the pandemic. I was just giving some info on event 201 which was carried out to prepare the world for the pandemic after the exercise took place.


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## Eddy Edson (May 23, 2021)

pm133 said:


> I'm not sure why a country would deliberately delay vaccinating their vulnerable. That is a very odd thing to do.


So the decision in Oz, NZ, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan etc was to go through the standard approval process, rather than the emergency use approval used in the UK, US, basically all the parts of the world which failed to deal adequately with the virus. This was supposed to give people greater confidence & promote uptake.  And bureaucratically, there was in fact no local "emergency". 

It was dumb, IMO.


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## nonethewiser (May 23, 2021)

From the man who lied thru his teeth on live tv, so wouldnt believe word man says.


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## pm133 (May 23, 2021)

Bruce Stephens said:


> When we're talking about such a large proportion of the population, surely talking about it as a problem of personal choices isn't that plausible? Surely it's more likely that our environment has changed (which is the product of lots of individual choices, sure, but it's not one that individuals have all that much power over)?



I do see where you are coming from here but I am also a very strong advocate of personal responsibility trumping all of it.
It's a combination of things and as I've said on other related threads, obesity is not as simple as willpower or anything like that.

None of this is about apportioning blame though. It's about understanding the source of the problem well enough to affect change in your own life. Blaming Boris for my waistline isn't going to cut the mustard. But recognising my own part in this absolutely is a first step. I can control that. I can make changes there and adopt a great mindset whilst doing so, providing I don't beat myself up by indulging in a useless game of "blaming" myself or anyone else.

When I take a step back, I see a clear picture developing on all of this so I'll share my thoughts which may or may not be accurate. Bear with me while I go through this. It might sound like an anti-Capitalist rant but that's actually not where my political beliefs stem from.

Here's my theory.
In the 70s and 80s, I don't recall any obesity crisis. Sure plenty of people were overweight but nowhere near the 8 out of 10 that I am seeing every time I go out and nowhere near the same size of being overweight either.

The roots of it I think started in the 80s (but maybe the seeds were sown post-WW2 - older posters will have a better idea) when our entire culture seemed to shift rapidly and decisively towards "greed is good" consumerism when we seemed to want to emulate everything American as a way out of crushing poverty. We replaced one problem (poverty) with another (excessive materialism). To feed that market, companies downsized and outsourced everything in pursuit of the cheap. Quality was sacrificed for profit. Jobs for life disappeared, insecurity replaced security. If the price wasn't right, we ditched it. If it didn't make a profit, we sneered at it. We slashed  and devalued spending on anything which didn't come with a pound sign - art, culture, music (the things which actually make life worth living). Even blue sky science and research was phased out leaving us incapable of innovating our way out of trouble. We turned kids playgrounds into housing estates. We allowed people to own more than one house so that they could turn a profit (along with most politicians who indulged in this). That way we allowed a scarce resource (housing) to become artificially scarcer, pushing up house prices. That new generation of "property developers" were then able to increase rents  because people who would normally have bought were now renting, increasing demand. A double bubble.

Somewhere along the line we lost our way and our culture disappeared with it. We sold our culture and our collective souls for cheap material stuff we don't really need and it's become clear that there's been a horrible price to pay. Depression and unhappiness have never been higher. When buying yet another new kitchen or yet another new iPhone doesn't fill the void created by unhappiness and depression, people turn to food. Obsessively. But not vegetables. Not fresh meat. We go to cake. Chocolate. Takeaways. Then the weight piles on and we get more miserable. So we comfort eat more and more. Processed food by the bucket. We even have one takeaway joint selling food in actual buckets - KFC. Modern society is now plagued by allergies (presumably from a lifetime of piling processed rubbish through our colons), depression, Type 2 diabetes, heart disease and countless preventable diseases which seem to have obesity as one of the largest risk factors.

So, in summary, capitalism is a potentially great tool for advancement but collectively and individually we have pissed it up against a wall and continue to do so. That has driven a wave of unhappiness which we've repeatedly filled with food and that has led to an obesity crisis in the UK. Interestingly, the country we aspired to be, the US, is unsurprisingly ahead of us in this regard. We should look there and glimpse our future. It's a horrifying thought. It truly is.

So that's my theory and I'm open to persuasion if someone can convince me I'm wrong. How you solve this? No idea.

ETA. Know how I overcame being overweight? After years of struggle I got "lucky" and developed Type 1 diabetes and shed 5 stone without trying. Since diagnosis I've put on 2 stone again (just the right weight now) and I intend to stay there if at all possible. I got lucky once. I suspect I will not get the chance again.


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## pm133 (May 23, 2021)

Eddy Edson said:


> So the decision in Oz, NZ, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan etc was to go through the standard approval process, rather than the emergency use approval used in the UK, US, basically all the parts of the world which failed to deal adequately with the virus. This was supposed to give people greater confidence & promote uptake.  And bureaucratically, there was in fact no local "emergency".



Right OK, that explains the delay then.

And unfortunately, it seems to have bred complacency rather than confidence in vaccines and that's a real shame. Hopefully that will improve because the longer you guys stay unvaccinated, the longer the virus has a chance to mutate. The fear will be that once a variant breaks through (and it absolutely will) your borders, it might rip right through your country in a heartbeat because of the low number of vaccinated people.

We're just going to have to wait and see what happens.


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## Robin (May 23, 2021)

An observation on obesity here,@pm133 . We went to Whitby last week, on the one warm sunny day there’s been recently. It was busy. The area round the harbour (near the car parks) was rammed with people sitting in cafes eating fish and chips, and most of them were overweight. We then walked up to the top of the cliff, where it was much less crowded and there were still people eating fish and chips, but in takeaway boxes that they’d bought down in the town, then walked up to the benches to eat. Most of these people were normal weight. So I have to conclude that exercise plays a part, and motivation plays a part in whether you take exercise or not. We fled the busy town because I hate crowded places and the smell of cheap frying oil, and I was motivated to walk up the steep hill to a quiet spot. Presumably for those whose main motivation was the pleasure of a plate of fish and chips, they missed out on the exercise.
When I was growing up, obesity was rare. But everyone used up more energy in their daily lives. Many people didn’t have cars, and walked or cycled to school or work, houses didn’t have central heating, I’m sure I burned up the odd few hundred calories just keeping warm. For the first few years away from home, I lugged my heavy washing to the laundrette down the road, and back. I carried my shopping to the bus stop and then to my house. People had to exercise because they didn’t have the choice. People didn’t buy snacks between meals because food was relatively expensive. Now they can choose whether to exercise, and some choose not to. Add to the mix that it has become the norm to eat on the go wherever you are, whereas I don’t remember anyone eating on buses or trains, and certainly not in the street when I was growing up in the 60s and 70s. I agree, portion sizes, the power of advertising for companies trying to maximise profit, more spending power for some consumers, and cheap junk food, have all played their part.
I have to add here, that I was one of the few overweight girls in my class at school, about 2 stones overweight, because I was unhappy and I comfort ate. I lost it when I left home and went to Uni. But what kept a lid on it for me, was that ordinary clothes shops only went up to a size 14 (which is the equivalelent of a 12 now, as sizes have got more generous) and I knew if I got any bigger my only option would be shop at Evans Outsizes, which was the only chain catering for larger sizes. Nowadays, people expect to find xxxl clothes as standard, and 2 stone overweight is accepted as the new normal, so no alarm bells ring.
Sorry, rant over, and I’ve gone way off topic!


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## Bruce Stephens (May 23, 2021)

Robin said:


> People didn’t buy snacks between meals because food was relatively expensive.


And snacks between meals weren't really a thing (with some exceptions, like afternoon tea).


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## mikeyB (May 24, 2021)

When I was born wartime rationing was still in place, and didn’t end completely till a year later. The result of that in my early years, excess eating was almost socially unacceptable, and the shortage of sweets in my early years meant I didn’t develop an interest in sweet things. I certainly didn’t eat between meals. Didn’t have time, exploring the hills around and trying to dam up streams, and squeeze through a broken door in the long abandoned cinema, just see what was there, or go up to the cricket field to watch match practice. We were certainly hardly ever in.

I’ve only ever been slightly overweight, which kicked off at Uni with beer and Disque Bleu and a heroically bad diet, and lost weight later with ulcerative colitis. Not a recommended way to do it, mind.


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## Northerner (May 24, 2021)

nonethewiser said:


> From the man who lied thru his teeth on live tv, so wouldnt believe word man says.


I think that the thing there though is that he was lying to protect himself - Johnson has made an enemy of him now by accusing him of leaks to the media, so I'm perfectly willing to believe he has lots of genuine dirt on the government, and PM in particular, and is now more than happy to release it in order to attack those he feels slighted and challenged by.


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## pm133 (May 24, 2021)

Robin said:


> An observation on obesity here,@pm133 . We went to Whitby last week, on the one warm sunny day there’s been recently. It was busy. The area round the harbour (near the car parks) was rammed with people sitting in cafes eating fish and chips, and most of them were overweight. We then walked up to the top of the cliff, where it was much less crowded and there were still people eating fish and chips, but in takeaway boxes that they’d bought down in the town, then walked up to the benches to eat. Most of these people were normal weight. So I have to conclude that exercise plays a part, and motivation plays a part in whether you take exercise or not. We fled the busy town because I hate crowded places and the smell of cheap frying oil, and I was motivated to walk up the steep hill to a quiet spot. Presumably for those whose main motivation was the pleasure of a plate of fish and chips, they missed out on the exercise.
> When I was growing up, obesity was rare. But everyone used up more energy in their daily lives. Many people didn’t have cars, and walked or cycled to school or work, houses didn’t have central heating, I’m sure I burned up the odd few hundred calories just keeping warm. For the first few years away from home, I lugged my heavy washing to the laundrette down the road, and back. I carried my shopping to the bus stop and then to my house. People had to exercise because they didn’t have the choice. People didn’t buy snacks between meals because food was relatively expensive. Now they can choose whether to exercise, and some choose not to. Add to the mix that it has become the norm to eat on the go wherever you are, whereas I don’t remember anyone eating on buses or trains, and certainly not in the street when I was growing up in the 60s and 70s. I agree, portion sizes, the power of advertising for companies trying to maximise profit, more spending power for some consumers, and cheap junk food, have all played their part.
> I have to add here, that I was one of the few overweight girls in my class at school, about 2 stones overweight, because I was unhappy and I comfort ate. I lost it when I left home and went to Uni. But what kept a lid on it for me, was that ordinary clothes shops only went up to a size 14 (which is the equivalelent of a 12 now, as sizes have got more generous) and I knew if I got any bigger my only option would be shop at Evans Outsizes, which was the only chain catering for larger sizes. Nowadays, people expect to find xxxl clothes as standard, and 2 stone overweight is accepted as the new normal, so no alarm bells ring.
> Sorry, rant over, and I’ve gone way off topic!



In the late 70s, fish suppers were an occasional treat our family indulged in once a year on holiday. My mum used to save coins in a penny jar for it too.
We never used to get much in the way of chocolate or sweets either and when we did get treats it was a few pence so we couldn't buy much.
Even so, I don't remember having cravings for anything.

We rarely used the car because my dad was at work with it so we walked, ran and cycled everywhere. On a rare occasion, my mum would treat us to a bus ride to town which was 1-2 miles away.
As kids we were never in the house. My mum used to keep us in if she needed to punish us!!

Remember we also had smaller supermarkets then too. My mum used to visit several shops each week.

Things have changed so quickly that it's hard to imagine this was all only around 40 years ago. I remember it all as clear as day.


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## pm133 (May 24, 2021)

Martin.A said:


> Not just us. A new report suggests that HALF A BILLION people in the world now have diabetes, many of whom don't know they have it.



If that's even remotely accurate then that is a shocking state of affairs.
And it all seems to have exploded in the last 40 years too.


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## mikeyB (May 24, 2021)

I suspect that the “unknown” diabetics won’t be able to afford glucose reading watches. The vast majority of people with diabetes in the UK have been diagnosed because of better education and healthcare, so I don’t think the NHS will be swamped.


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## pm133 (May 25, 2021)

Amity Island said:


> If the new glucose reading watches make it onto the worldwide market, no doubt all these "unknown" diabetics will soon become "known". How will healthcare systems deal with a huge and sudden surge in numbers? How would our NHS handle all these extra diabetic patients?


It's not going to be sustainable to just treat the symptoms of diabetes if these numbers are accurate.
It'll also need significant sums of money spent on ensuring the root causes are identified and dealt with at source.

Of course, treating the condition will be see savings as more severe and costly complications would be avoided but this is very bad news indeed and it can't be allowed to continue.


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## mikeyB (May 26, 2021)

How can they say how many people are living with undiagnosed diabetes? You can’t count them unless they’ve been diagnosed.


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## Andy HB (May 26, 2021)

mikeyB said:


> How can they say how many people are living with undiagnosed diabetes? You can’t count them unless they’ve been diagnosed.


Statistics.


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## mikeyB (May 26, 2021)

That is not an answer. Which statistics?


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## Eddy Edson (May 26, 2021)

Anyway, it's pretty good TV.


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## Bruce Stephens (May 26, 2021)

Eddy Edson said:


> Anyway, it's pretty good TV.


It's weird, he sounds almost honest.


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## Andy HB (May 26, 2021)

mikeyB said:


> That is not an answer. Which statistics?


Yes it is. Ask a statistician. They can estimate anything given certain assumptions. Doesn't mean to say they are correct though.


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## Eddy Edson (May 26, 2021)

Bruce Stephens said:


> It's weird, he sounds almost honest.


BJ "wanted to be like the mayor in Jaws". That's a keeper.

Testimony seems to skewer any notion that failure to close borders was based on anything real.


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## pm133 (May 26, 2021)

If Johnson and Hancock had any decency whatsoever, they resign tonight and let Sunak take over as Prime Minister.

If Cumming had any decency, he'd walk off into the sunset and never blight public service again.

How on earth did we get to the point where we had people like this running the country?


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## mikeyB (May 27, 2021)

By voting Conservative, obviously.

Next question?


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## Docb (May 27, 2021)

pm133 said:


> If Johnson and Hancock had any decency whatsoever, they resign tonight and let Sunak take over as Prime Minister.
> 
> If Cumming had any decency, he'd walk off into the sunset and never blight public service again.
> 
> How on earth did we get to the point where we had people like this running the country?


It was a question asked by Cummings in his evidence.  He also asked how on earth you could end up with a choice between Johnston and Corbyn and him as a senior advisor.  He concluded that there must be something fundamentally wrong with the political process.  No matter who you vote for you are likely to end up with a Prime Minister who would never have got the job if there had been a proper recruitment process.


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## pm133 (May 27, 2021)

Docb said:


> It was a question asked by Cummings in his evidence.  He also asked how on earth you could end up with a choice between Johnston and Corbyn and him as a senior advisor.  He concluded that there must be something fundamentally wrong with the political process.  No matter who you vote for you are likely to end up with a Prime Minister who would never have got the job if there had been a proper recruitment process.



That was by far the worst choice we've had at a General Election that I can ever remember. Neither Johnson nor Corbyn should have been anywhere near the job.
Fortunately in Scotland we had another credible party to vote for but if I had still been living in England I wouldn't have voted at all.

I can't recall the last time we had such an appalling government with absolutely no credible opposition at UK level. It's pretty disheartening.


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## Bruce Stephens (May 27, 2021)

pm133 said:


> Fortunately in Scotland we had another credible party to vote for but if I had still been living in England I wouldn't have voted at all.


I take the electoral system we're apparently stuck with seriously: I'm not voting for a Prime Minister, I'm voting for my representative in parliament. (Technically I suppose in one election I was, since Vince Cable was at the time leader of the Liberal Democrats.)


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## pm133 (May 27, 2021)

Bruce Stephens said:


> I take the electoral system we're apparently stuck with seriously: I'm not voting for a Prime Minister, I'm voting for my representative in parliament. (Technically I suppose in one election I was, since Vince Cable was at the time leader of the Liberal Democrats.)



Oh I take it seriously as well. We have the freedom not only to decide who to put in power but we also have the freedom to not vote at all.

I've always taken the view that I'm voting for the next government.
This is probably how most people vote.
I've never been interested in the local candidate themselves.
In fact I probably couldn't name them.

If none of the two parties who could credibly govern have fit and proper leaders (and that was clearly the case with Corbyn and Johnson) then there would have been nobody for me to vote for in that scenario.

Fortunately, in Scotland we do have a credible alternative to both and we also have a specific issue worth voting for.


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## pm133 (May 27, 2021)

Eddy Edson said:


> We antipodeans have come through the pandemic with no excess mortality (in fact, negative excess mortality), mostly no "lock downs" or other restrictions for most of the time, strong economies and clear "exit strategies" with vaccination. What more could you ask for?



Looks like Victoria is going back into yet another lockdown. 
Just 1.7% of the population is vaccinated!!!! Wow. That is truly appalling.
This isn't over for anyone yet unfortunately.

https://news.sky.com/story/covid-19...r-lockdown-due-to-recent-virus-cases-12317965


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## Docb (May 27, 2021)

Bruce Stephens said:


> I take the electoral system we're apparently stuck with seriously: I'm not voting for a Prime Minister, I'm voting for my representative in parliament. (Technically I suppose in one election I was, since Vince Cable was at the time leader of the Liberal Democrats.)



Spot on @Bruce Stephens.  

One of the things not much commented on in recent local elections is the move away from traditional voting patterns.  I like to think that has something to do the electorate thinking more locally.  I am told that West Oxfordshire has been lost by the conservatives - something almost totally unthinkable.  I am also told that it had little to do who is leading what party, but more to do with local issues and how they are being handled by the incumbents.  I would like to think that the same thing is happening in where Labour have lost control.

If that is right then it has got to be a good thing.


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## Eddy Edson (May 27, 2021)

pm133 said:


> Looks like Victoria is going back into yet another lockdown.
> Just 1.7% of the population is vaccinated!!!! Wow. That is truly appalling.
> This isn't over for anyone yet unfortunately.
> 
> https://news.sky.com/story/covid-19...r-lockdown-due-to-recent-virus-cases-12317965


Yep, pain in the butt. 7 day (hopefully) hard lockdown to make sure that contact tracing is ahead of the curve, which so far it seems to be, as usual.  Standard playbook here for when the virus leaks out of hotel quarantine, infinitely better than eg months long sort-of lockdowns & lots of people dying & the economy going rancid.

That's 1.7% fully vaccinated. 15%+ have had one shot, accelerating. Maybe this latest little outbreak will induce people to take things more urgently.  I was ranting at members of my family yesterday - "Just f'ing get it done!". 

But the fed govt has a lot to answer for: UK-quality fed health minister and health bureaucrats saying all year that there was no urgency; denying aeorosl transmission risks in quarantine hotels; terrible messaging around AZ blood clot risks; telling people if they didn't want to take the risk, there was more mRNA coming later in the year. 

I've decided that Greg Hunt, our glad-handing little fed health minister, is Matt Hancock minus sex.


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## pm133 (May 27, 2021)

Eddy Edson said:


> Yep, pain in the butt. 7 day (hopefully) hard lockdown to make sure that contact tracing is ahead of the curve, which so far it seems to be, as usual.  Standard playbook here for when the virus leaks out of hotel quarantine, infinitely better than eg months long sort-of lockdowns & lots of people dying & the economy going rancid.
> 
> That's 1.7% fully vaccinated. 15%+ have had one shot, accelerating. Maybe this latest little outbreak will induce people to take things more urgently.  I was ranting at members of my family yesterday - "Just f'ing get it done!".
> 
> ...



It must be a nightmare running a business under that environment and there's no chance of it ending any time soon at those levels of vaccination. This is just going to go on and on and on.


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## Bruce Stephens (May 27, 2021)

pm133 said:


> This is just going to go on and on and on.


I don't see why. They have exceptionally low levels of infection and an apparently effective test and contact tracing system. Presumably they'll improve the quarantining a bit to make this a bit less likely in the future.

Not great to isolate your country (though they can join with NZ now which presumably makes things a bit better), but I'm not sure it's worse than most places in Europe. If the shutdowns are short and infrequent it's presumably much easier to compensate businesses for them.

They'll want to vaccinate much faster, I'm sure, and that's presumably harder to sell to a population that's not been hit so hard. Even so I'm sure the pace will pick up.


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## Robin (May 27, 2021)

Docb said:


> I am told that West Oxfordshire has been lost by the conservatives - something almost totally unthinkable


No, not so. I’m in West Oxon, and whilst we re-elected our Lib Dem councillor (because she’s very good on local issues) of the 17 seats up for grabs, Tories took 10, and a mix of others took the rest. With the seats already held on the council that weren't up for election the Tories retain control.
What was more interesting was the Oxfordshire County Council elections. The Tory leader, who stands for Woodstock, lost his seat, and Chipping Norton (home of David Cameron's set) voted a Labour County Councillor in. Our ward voted a Lib Dem in, who is now leader of the Lib/Lab/Green coalition formed on the county council.
I think you are right about people thinking more locally, The
successful candidates in Chipping Norton and in our ward for the County Council were already sitting members of the District Council with a good track record on local issues.


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## Docb (May 27, 2021)

Thanks for putting me straight @Robin - was getting my councils mixed up.  

I am working with my brother who lives in the area and others on sewage discharge problems and the head of steam they are generating was likely a contributor to the results in the affected areas. I don't know if you are aware but seemingly every sewage works in the area regularly discharges raw sewage into water courses and at least one discharges raw sewage into an open soakaway - little more than an old fashioned cess pit.  Getting anybody to take on board the issues and do something about it either in Thames Water (the polluter), Environment Agency (the regulator) or local council is proving to be a real problem. You can get plenty of noise but no action.  It will be interesting to see whether the Greens will make any difference.


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## Robin (May 27, 2021)

Docb said:


> Thanks for putting me straight @Robin - was getting my councils mixed up.
> 
> I am working with my brother who lives in the area and others on sewage discharge problems and the head of steam they are generating was likely a contributor to the results in the affected areas. I don't know if you are aware but seemingly every sewage works in the area regularly discharges raw sewage into water courses and at least one discharges raw sewage into an open soakaway - little more than an old fashioned cess pit.  Getting anybody to take on board the issues and do something about it either in Thames Water (the polluter), Environment Agency (the regulator) or local council is proving to be a real problem. You can get plenty of noise but no action.  It will be interesting to see whether the Greens will make any difference.


There has indeed been a head of steam about sewage discharge into our local river, and plenty of discussion on our local forum. Several locals here seem to be 'on the case.'


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## Docb (May 27, 2021)

Wouldn't be the Windrush would it? Or the Glyme?  We are looking at the Clanfield works which discharges into a static ditch!


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## Robin (May 27, 2021)

Docb said:


> Wouldn't be the Windrush would it? Or the Glyme?  We are looking at the Clanfield works which discharges into a static ditch!


It’s the Evenlode. It joins the Glyme just before they both flow into the Thames south of Blenheim Palace.
Clanfield is surrounded by ditches isn’t it? Sounds grim.


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## Eddy Edson (May 27, 2021)

Bruce Stephens said:


> I don't see why. They have exceptionally low levels of infection and an apparently effective test and contact tracing system. Presumably they'll improve the quarantining a bit to make this a bit less likely in the future.
> 
> Not great to isolate your country (though they can join with NZ now which presumably makes things a bit better), but I'm not sure it's worse than most places in Europe. If the shutdowns are short and infrequent it's presumably much easier to compensate businesses for them.
> 
> They'll want to vaccinate much faster, I'm sure, and that's presumably harder to sell to a population that's not been hit so hard. Even so I'm sure the pace will pick up.


This is about right.

About 1% of infections in quarantine hotels lead to leaks. Hotels obviously aren't designed as quarantine facilities and maybe you can't get it much below that. One big debate here is over the degree of urgency for constructing purpose-built facilities and staffing them in more remote locations. You have to figure that the risk of a big quarantine leakage & big community spread increases over time; hopefully this latest Melbourne thing isn't that.

One surprising thing has been the lack of apparent impact from closing the borders on the economy etc (obviously, it varies by sector). Things are going great, in comparison to just about everywhere else, and on track compared to how things were before the plague. One thing the fed govt has been good at is firing up the printing press to support businesses and people impacted by lockdowns etc. Of course this isn't sustainable forever but it's working well so far, economically and for promoting compliance.

People generally don't mind being cut off from the world, given that the rest of the world looks like a big plague pit. "We can't open up until everybody gets vaccinated" hasn't been a very compelling message.

Vaccination needs to get better but FWIW we're doing better than our peer group (NZ, Taiwan, Japan, South Korea etc). Hopefully this latest Melbourne thing will give things a push.

Getting thrashed by Pitcairn Island, though: 



__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1397892931739164673


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## nonethewiser (May 28, 2021)

See lying sod is still insisting drive to Barnard Castle was to test his eyesight, time to fess up Dom.


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## Docb (May 28, 2021)

nonethewiser said:


> See lying sod is still insisting drive to Barnard Castle was to test his eyesight, time to fess up Dom.


Dunno about that.  Said his test drive was to see if he was functioning well enough for the drive to London the following day, which is fair enough.  Why he did not make that clear up front is beyond me.  I am sure there is more to the story but the chances of really bottoming it out are negligible.

It's the problem with a half truth... some will see it as a truth and some will see it as a lie.  The mire that Hancock is sinking into is because all he only ever tells half truths.


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## mikeyB (May 28, 2021)

Whatever mire Hancock is sinking in, deservedly, he won’t get sacked because he’s being set up as the fall guy whenever the official inquiry starts.


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## Bruce Stephens (May 28, 2021)

Docb said:


> Said his test drive was to see if he was functioning well enough for the drive to London the following day,


Which was always the story as far as I understood it. What changed was (I thought) the original trip to his parent's estate which (he now says) was about security concerns with his house in London.


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